Here are 5 counties to watch as the Georgia Senate election results roll in
The calendar may now say 2021, but the 2020 campaign will finally come to an end in Georgia tonight.
The state’s twin runoffs are poised to play a major role in shaping both parties’ immediate political futures, as the outcome will determine control of the U.S. Senate and how difficult it will be for President-elect Joe Biden to pass his policy agenda through Congress.
Heading into Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans are largely feeling the same way: uncertain. Between President Donald Trump’s ongoing efforts to contest the results of the November election based on unfounded claims of fraud, a rare January contest taking place right after the holidays and limited public polling, political operatives see a wide range of potential results.
One thing that is for certain: after Georgia saw record-breaking turnout two months ago, voter interest is once again sky-high as incumbent Republicans, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, face off against their respective Democratic challengers, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock.
More than 3 million Georgians cast ballots before Jan. 5, breaking the previous early voting record for a runoff in the state of 2.1 million. By comparison, 3.9 million of the state’s residents voted early ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
Polls close across Georgia at 7 p.m. ET tonight. Election officials will begin counting mail ballots, which must be received by 7 p.m., after polls close.
Here are five key counties to watch as the results roll in to get a sense of which way these races are headed:
Gwinnett County
November presidential result: Joe Biden (D) 58%, Donald Trump (R) 40%
November Senate result: Jon Ossoff (D) 57%, David Perdue (R) 41%
November Senate special result: Raphael Warnock (D) 36%, Kelly Loeffler (R) 22%, Doug Collins (R) 14%, Deborah Jackson (D) 9%
Overview: The once reliably red Atlanta suburbs are sharply trending Democratic. After down-ballot Democrats ran slightly behind Biden across Georgia, Ossoff and Warnock will be aiming to reach at least the 58% mark the former vice president hit in Gwinnett two months ago. Meanwhile, Republicans are banking on this area returning to its more traditional form without Trump, who has struggled mightily with suburban voters all over the country, on the ballot.
Fulton County
November presidential result: Biden 73%, Trump 26%
November Senate result: Ossoff 70%, Perdue 28%
November Senate special result: Warnock 51%, Loeffler 16%, Collins 9%, Jackson 8%
Overview: In addition to the suburbs, Democrats will need to run up the score once again in Fulton, home to Atlanta and a high concentration of Black voters. Biden, who took 73% of the vote in the county in November, made Atlanta the site of his final rally in Georgia before Election Day. But Republicans are hoping that turnout will drop here as it historically does in non-presidential elections.
Jasper County
November presidential result: Trump 76%, Biden 23%
November Senate result: Perdue 76%, Ossoff 22%
November Senate special result: Loeffler 43%, Collins 28%, Warnock 16%, Jackson 3%
Overview: While Democrats have focused much of their efforts on metropolitan Atlanta, Republicans are zeroing in on rural areas. Jasper, located southeast of Atlanta, is a prime example of how the GOP has opportunities to expand their advantage with white working-class voters even further, as Trump increased his share of the vote here from 72% to 76% from 2016 to 2020. Democrats want to cut into those margins even slightly, which could have major ramifications in a close statewide race.
Whitfield County
November presidential result: Trump 70%, Biden 29%
November Senate result: Perdue 69%, Ossoff 28%
November Senate special result: Loeffler 36%, Collins 27%, Warnock 11%, Jackson 7%
Overview: Republicans are also looking to rev up the base in the northwest corner of the state, a conservative bastion. In a sign of its significance, Trump campaigned Monday evening in Whitfield, where he won around 70% in the last two presidential elections. Loeffler and Perdue will likely need to win a similar share to carry the state.
Peach County
November presidential result: Trump 52%, Biden 47%
November Senate result: Perdue 52%, Ossoff 46%
November Senate special result: Warnock 33%, Loeffler 27%, Collins 21%, Jackson 6%
Overview: Considered one of Georgia’s bellwether counties due to its racially split electorate, Peach County, which sits just southwest of Macon, narrowly backed both Barack Obama and Trump twice. Democrats are seeking to drive Black turnout closer to Obama-era levels to compete here, while Republicans are trying to appeal to the area’s rural white voters. The results here will provide one of the better indications of which direction Georgia is headed statewide.
This story was originally published January 5, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
