Think the Republican field is already crowded? Better find more room, because the roster of potential candidates for the GOP presidential nomination may grow even more.
New Hampshire Republicans heard from 18 people who are or may be running this weekend. Two others didn’t attend.
It probably didn’t matter, because when the marathon ended, no one could claim momentum. And no one could reliably say what the primary ballot will look like.
Prominent party figures barely known outside their home states are weighing bids. Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder and former Maryland Gov. Robert Ehrlich are thinking about it. Snyder loyalists have set up a fund that so he can travel and boast about his battered state’s economic comeback. Ehrlich, who won the governorship in heavily Democratic Maryland, has made several visits to New Hampshire in recent months.
Others are being mentioned in insider circles. Indiana Gov. Mike Pence’s prospects sank during the recent flap over Indiana’s religious liberty law, but he still has fans among conservatives. Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval, who’s won two terms in a state that’s been trending Democratic, has also been mentioned, though more as a potential vice presidential pick.
This muddled, still-emerging field is the result of an unusual convergence of political influences. Republicans for years have given their nomination to the next in line, often a runner-up in the previous cycle or a vice president. This time, “there’s no heir apparent,” said Steve Duprey, the state’s Republican national committeeman.
There is a widespread feeling that Republicans have a good shot at winning the White House. Only once since World War II has the same party won the presidency more than twice in a row – Republicans in 1980, 1984 and 1988.
So GOP activists have two broad standards for picking a candidate: They want someone reliably conservative. And, “I want a winner,” said Tanja Owen, an Amherst marketing director. It’s a sentiment echoed repeatedly.
Republicans often feel they had to settle for 2008 nominee John McCain and 2012 nominee Mitt Romney because they supposedly had appeal to the general electorate. Neither stirred conservatives, and many vow not to make electability their only standard again.
Jeb Bush would fit the McCain-Romney mold, and that’s a drawback with some. “Gov. Bush is a wonderful person. I’m just concerned he’s going to be another Romney,” said Lisa Mediano, an attorney from Fitzwilliam, N.H. “I don’t want the national party telling me who’s going to win.”
Republicans have a long roster of other proven vote-getters acceptable to the diehard conservatives, notably governors who have won in swing states. Activists tend to like governors. “They have that executive experience. They know how to run things,” said Jane Lane, a law firm secretary from Keene.
They’re also helping make the field a work in progress, as governors from Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Nevada, New Mexico and elsewhere now are potentially serious candidates.
Michigan’s unemployment rate has been cut nearly in half since Snyder, 56, became governor in 2011, and in February was 5.9 percent, slightly above the national average. A drawback for Snyder: He won re-election last year with only 51 percent.
Sandoval, 51, gets notice not only because he won re-election last year with 70 percent, but is the first Hispanic to hold statewide office in Nevada. He’s got several options, notably a chance to run next year for the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid.
Pence, 55, had been on faster political track. Conservatives liked his blend of Washington experience – he was a top congressional Republican leader – as well as his executive experience.
But the first-term governor stumbled badly over the religious freedom law. After a national uproar, the law was changed to provide new protection against discrimination.
Ehrlich, 57, also has political flaws. A former congressmen from the heavily Democratic Baltimore suburbs, he became the first Republican to win the governorship in Maryland in 36 years in 2002. He lost his re-election bid four years later, as well as a comeback try in 2010.
None of this means he or Pence can be ruled out. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who also signaled his interest in New Hampshire this weekend, signed legislation in 2011 limiting collective bargaining rights for some public employees, only to see voters repeal the law the next year. He still won re-election in 2014, with strong union support.
So far the ideal candidate hasn’t surfaced. “Bush does have more background than anybody else,” explained Jim McConaha, a Concord retiree. “If one of these others could show he had that, I’d be happy.”
At this point, he’ll consider nearly anyone – “as long as they have good looks and a sense of humor.” And can win.
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