Here’s how strong Hillary Clinton starts her presidential bid: Sabato’s Crystal Ball has her in the first tier of Democratic candidates. There is no second tier.
“Clinton is unquestionably the only first-tier candidate,” says the analysis from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, “and we’re leaving the second tier empty as a nod to her dominant standing in the party.”
There is a third tier, which includes former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, former Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia, former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee, and Sen. Bernard Sanders, a Vermont independent. Vice President Joe Biden is listed as a “wild card.”
At the moment, their challenge is huge. “Clinton’s worst national poll since the start of last year is still better than her best poll during the 2008 cycle,” says the analysis.
Perhaps more important, she’s doing well so far in Iowa, site of the nation’s first caucus.
“Clinton’s polling in Iowa is also light years better now than it was eight years ago,” the analylsis says. But remember, it adds, “ultimately, the early-state polls are much more important than the national ones: If Clinton starts to weaken, her problems will pop up in the state-level surveys first.”
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