Is America ready for Lindsey Graham?
Months after announcing that he’ll test the waters for a 2016 presidential run, Sen. Graham, R-S.C., is finally wading into Iowa and New Hampshire to gauge the viability of a campaign and interest among voters and caucus attendees in those early contests.
Graham was to arrive in Des Moines on Thursday for two days of meetings with prospective campaign workers and caucusgoers. He expects to make his first foray into New Hampshire as a prospective candidate by the end of the month.
“We’re going to talk to folks about their view of what’s there for a guy like me,” Graham said in an interview this week. “And we’re going to meet some people who, I think, can be very helpful to us down the road.”
He’s already buoyed by a recent NBC News/Marist Poll that shows him as the front-runner in South Carolina in a crowded field that might include former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and others.
And Graham, who raised more than $11 million for his Senate re-election bid last year, is getting attention from some big-time donors as he ponders a presidential run.
Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson has signed up to co-chair a fundraiser March 3 for Graham’s Security Through Strength exploratory committee. A Graham aide cautioned that Adelson’s presence, along with that of 32 other top Republican donors as co-chairs, shouldn’t be considered an endorsement.
Adelson gave nearly $93 million to conservative groups and political action committees in 2012, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan research group that tracks money in politics.
Vowing to be more than a “favorite son” candidate, Graham is embarking on a listening tour of sorts to assess whether there’s support, money, infrastructure and room in the Republican field for a Southern military hawk who supports a comprehensive overhaul of immigration laws and has no problem cutting deals with congressional Democrats.
He’s banking that he can distinguish himself with his expertise in foreign policy and national security, subjects that a Republican field potentially stocked with former and current governors has limited experience with.
“For me to make this decision, pull the trigger, jump in this thing, I’ve got to see a pathway forward,” he said. “If you’re thinking about national security and terrorism, if you think that’s a real concern, then that’s a pathway forward for me. If you want a conservative right-of-center guy but working with Democrats is not a sin, then that’s a path forward for me.”
Graham is also counting on following the route traveled by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., his good friend and political soul mate, in winning presidential primaries in South Carolina in 2000 and 2008.
McCain, another hawk and advocate of a comprehensive immigration overhaul, held countless town hall meetings and generated media attention with his Straight Talk Express bus tours through the state.
“Maybe there’s some McCain magic up there for me,” Graham said.
Ask Graham why he’s considering running and he’ll tell you it’s a matter of mathematics.
“When you think of all the things you can do as a senator, you can make an impact as a senator. But I’ll be honest with you, I keep saying you can’t have 535 commander in chiefs,” he said, referring to the 100 senators and the 435 members of the House of Representatives. “And the one we’ve got seems to not really like the job or doesn’t really know what he’s doing.”
Graham appears to be an afterthought with Iowa and New Hampshire voters this early in the presidential cycle, receiving just 1 percent in each state in the recent NBC News/Marist Poll.
Still, analysts in early primary states aren’t counting Graham out, though they’re not sure exactly what’s out there for him. Their reactions to a possible Graham candidacy range from head-scratching to simply, “Why not?”
“At this point it appears quixotic,” said Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University in Des Moines. “You’ve got to go through the gatekeepers in Iowa: Christian conservatives and the tea party. That could be a challenge for him.”
Craig Robinson, editor-in-chief of The Iowa Republican, a partisan website, thinks “there’d be a pretty small niche for Lindsey Graham” in the state.
“If you’re an establishment Republican, which I think Graham is, I think you’re with Christie or Bush,” Robinson said, referring to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. “But foreign policy, that’s the sweet spot for Graham. If he can talk about that, show that he’s in the Senate every day and is the grown-up in the room who’ll make the trains run on time, will that be enough? I don’t know.”
In New Hampshire, Graham may face a struggle being recognized by voters, according to Dante Scala, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire.
That’s ironic considering Graham was often at McCain’s side during his campaign swings through the Granite State and has appeared on nationally televised Sunday news shows more than 85 times since 2009, according to statistics compiled by researchers at Washington’s American University.
But the inability of some voters to associate a face with the name shouldn’t deter Graham from trying his luck in New Hampshire.
“Heck, even George Pataki comes up here on a regular basis,” Scala said, referring to the Republican former New York governor. “So why not Graham?”
Steve Duprey, a Republican National Committee member who was a 2008 McCain supporter, thinks New Hampshire could be the perfect state for a Graham campaign.
“The playbook isn’t original,” said Duprey, who’s chair of the RNC’s debate committee and isn’t endorsing any candidate. “The playbook is the McCain playbook: 100 town hall meetings where one-third of the people will be protesters, one-third curiosity-seekers and one-third serious voters. That’s tailor-made for someone like Graham, who is self-deprecating, has a great sense of humor and is quick on his feet. He’ll do well in that environment.”
Polls in South Carolina present a mixed picture for Graham. Though he leads the potential presidential pack in the NBC News/Marist Poll (17 percent for Graham, 15 percent for Bush, 12 percent for Walker, 10 percent for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee), 58 percent of South Carolina registered voters think he shouldn’t run for president.
Thirty-five percent of the state’s registered voters think he should, the poll found.
“In a crowded field, he does OK, but that doesn’t mean there’s a groundswell of people, including Republicans, who want him to run,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in New York, which conducted the poll.
Graham shrugs off those findings, saying, “I wouldn’t run if I didn’t think I could be competitive and win the whole state.” But he added that if he runs, it won’t be as a one-state, single-issue candidate.
“I’m not subjecting myself to get the hell beat out of myself just for the pleasure of shaping the debate,” he said. “I promise you, there’s a best pathway forward for me in South Carolina. But I’m not running as a favorite son candidate. I’m running to be commander in chief.”
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