Democrats pull ahead in generic ballot, but GOP still favored to pick up seats

The U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C.
The U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C. McClatchy

Democrats have regained the edge in the generic congressional ballot, according to a new CNN/ORC poll--but independent analysts still see the party with a net loss in Senate and House of Representatives seats this fall.

The poll asks people to pick between unidentified Democrats and Republicans, and the latest survey, taken Sept. 25-18 and released Tuesday, found Democrats up 47 to 45 percent among likely voters.

A Sept. 5-7 survey found Republicans up 4.

Part of the reason for the shift, according to a CNN analysis, is that “they gave Congress low marks for how it handled the ISIS threat and have more faith in President Barack Obama than GOP leaders to set the military policy to deal with the militant Islamist group.”

Sixty percent disapproved of how Congress handled the situation. Forty-eight percent said they had more confidence in Obama to handle the ISIS crisis, while 41 percent named Republican leaders.

Republicans now have a 233 to 199 seat advantage in the House, and experts expect Republicans to pick up a few seats. That’s because Democratic votes tend to be concentrated in the Northeast and urban areas, while Republican votes are more spread out, the CNN analysis said.

In the Senate, Republicans need a net gain of six seats to win control of the chamber.