Here’s how Biden’s polling compares to Clinton’s two weeks from Election Day in 2016

Two weeks from Election Day in 2016, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton saw her national polling lead over President Donald Trump shrinking.

Two weeks away from the election this year, Joe Biden’s lead over Trump has also slightly narrowed in some swing states, although Biden’s national lead in particular has been more consistent compared to Clinton’s.

The final presidential debate — scheduled for Thursday in Nashville and moderated by Kristen Welker of NBC News — could sway more voters toward either candidate.

Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.1% but lost the Electoral College to Trump. Here’s how her polling compares to Biden’s two weeks out from the election.

National polls

FiveThirtyEight’s average of national polls in 2016 showed Clinton with 45.8% and Trump with 39.7% two weeks out from Election Day, meaning Clinton had a 6.1% lead. The previous week, Clinton was up by 6.6%.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden is leading with 52.2% compared to Trump with 41.9%, meaning Biden is leading by 10.3% compared to 10.6% from the previous week.

RealClearPolitics’ national average in 2016 had Clinton polling at 48.3% compared to Trump with 43.2%, giving Clinton a 5.1% lead two weeks out from Election Day compared to her 7.1% lead a week prior.

According to RealClearPolitics, Biden is leading with 51.1% compared to Trump’s 42.5%, meaning Biden has a 8.6% lead. Biden’s lead the previous week was 10%.

Clinton never reached the 50% threshold in the 2016 RealClearPolitics average of polling after the Republican and Democratic National Conventions, while Biden has reached or neared that number for much of the campaign after the conventions.

Polling in battleground states

Arizona:

Trump won Arizona’s 11 electoral votes in 2016, beating Clinton with more than 91,000 votes, or 3.5%.

FiveThirtyEight projected in 2016 two weeks before the election that Clinton would have 46.3% of the vote in Arizona compared to Trump with 45.9%. Clinton was up by 0.4% while she was up by 0.8% the previous week.

Two weeks out from the election, Biden is projected to get 49% of the vote while Trump will get 45.1%, meaning Biden is up by 3.9%, the same as last week, according to FiveThirtyEight.

RealClearPolitics’ average on Oct. 25 showed Clinton with 43.5% and Trump with 42%, meaning Clinton had a 1.5% lead compared to 0.4% the previous week.

Biden’s average is 49.3% while Trump’s is 46.2%, according to RealClearPolitics. Biden is up by 3.1% compared to 2.7% last week.

Unlike 2016, when Trump and Clinton swapped leads, Biden has not trailed in the RealClearPolitics average in Arizona since early March.

Florida:

Trump won Florida’s 29 electoral votes in 2016, beating Clinton by more than 112,000 votes, or 1.2%.

FiveThirtyEight predicted Clinton would win 49.2% of Florida’s vote share while Trump would win 45.8%, giving Clinton a 3.4% lead as two weeks remained in the race. She was up by 4.2% the previous week.

Biden is predicted to get 48.8% of Florida’s vote while Trump would get 45.4%, meaning Biden is up by 3.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight. He was up by 4.5% last week.

RealClearPolitics’ average had Clinton with 47% and Trump with 44.6%, giving a 2.4% lead for Clinton. She was leading by 3.6% the previous week.

Biden’s average is 48.3% for Florida while Trump’s is 47.3%, giving Biden a 1% lead. Biden was leading by 3.7% last week.

Michigan:

Trump won Michigan’s 16 electoral votes in 2016, narrowly beating Clinton by more than 10,700 votes, or .3%.

FiveThirtyEight predicted two weeks before Election Day that Clinton’s vote share would be 50% and Trump’s would be 42.2%, giving Clinton a 7.8% lead. She was up by 9.1% the previous week.

Biden is predicted to win 50.6% of Michigan’s vote share while Trump would win 42.8%, meaning Biden is leading by 7.8%, according to FiveThirtyEight. Biden was up by 8.0% the previous week.

RealClearPolitics’ average two weeks out from the election in 2016 was 47.5% for Clinton and 37.5% for Trump, meaning Clinton was leading by 10%. She was up by 12.0% the previous week.

Biden’s polling average is 50% while Trump’s is 42.7%, meaning has Biden a 7.3% lead, according to RealClearPolitics. Biden was up by 7.0% last week.

North Carolina:

Trump won North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes in 2016 and got more than 173,000 more votes than Clinton, or 3.6%.

FiveThirtyEight had Clinton getting 48.5% of the vote share and Trump winning 45.9% on Oct. 25, meaning Clinton had a 2.6% lead. She was up by 3.4% the previous week.

Biden is predicted to get 49.2% while Trump would get 46.1%, meaning Biden is leading by 3.1%, according to FiveThirtyEight. Biden was leading by 3.3% last week.

RealClearPolitics’ average forecast on Oct. 25 had Clinton with 47% and Trump with 44.8%, meaning Clinton had a 2.2% lead. She was up by 3.3% the previous week.

Polling averages have Biden with 48.4% and Trump with 46.4%, giving Biden a 2% lead, according to RealClearPolitics. Biden was up by 3.2% last week.

Pennsylvania:

FiveThirtyEight predicted two weeks before Election Day that Clinton would win 50.1% of Pennsylvania’s vote share and Trump would win 43.6%, meaning Clinton was up by 6.5% in the polls. She was leading by 7.8% the previous week.

Biden is projected to win 50.6% and Trump 44.2%, meaning Biden is leading by 6.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight. Biden was up by 7.2% last week.

Two weeks out from the election, RealClearPolitics’ average projected Clinton with 47.2% and Trump with 42%, meaning Clinton was leading by 4.8%. The previous week, she was up by 6.7%.

Polling averages have Biden with 48.8% and Trump with 45%, meaning Biden is leading by 3.8%, according to RealClearPolitics. Biden was up by 7% last week.

Wisconsin:

Trump won Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes in 2016, beating Clinton by more than 22,000 votes, or .7%.

FiveThirtyEight predicted two weeks out from the election that Clinton would win 50% of Wisconsin’s vote share while Trump would win 42.9%, giving Clinton a 7.1% lead. She was up by 8.2% the previous week.

Biden is projected to win 50.9% and Trump 43.7%, meaning Biden is up by 7.2%, according to FiveThirtyEight. He was leading by 7.9% last week.

RealClearPolitics’ polling average had Clinton with 45.3% on Oct. 25 and Trump with 39.3%, meaning she was leading by 6%.

Polling averages show Biden with 49.7% and Trump with 43.5%, meaning Biden has a 6.2% lead, according to RealClearPolitics. Biden was leading by 6.1% last week.

Favorability ratings

Biden has consistently had better favorability ratings than Trump. As of Oct. 20, Biden is leading Trump by 18.7% when it comes to personal favorability, according to RealClearPolitics.

Two weeks before Election Day, Clinton also had better favorability ratings than Trump, leading him by 14.9%, RealClearPolitics averages show.

Biden also appears to be more liked than Clinton. A Morning Consult poll found that, three months out from the election, 35% of voters have very unfavorable views of Biden compared to 43% for Clinton at the same point in 2016

That gap widened among independents, with 51% having “very unfavorable” views of Clinton compared to 31% for Biden with three months left in the race.

This story was originally published October 20, 2020 at 3:06 PM.