Ted Howze lost GOP leader’s 2020 endorsement. Does he have a chance in November?
Ted Howze’s chances of election in November are now “impossible,” some Republicans concede, after national GOP groups and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy pulled their endorsements from the California congressional candidate.
But they also contend the one seat is not a huge loss because Howze was not a strong candidate for a Modesto-centered district where Democrats outnumber Republicans, allowing the party to focus on other races.
“This district has never been one I thought was likely to flip back. Then once Howze became the nominee – he’s not middle-of-the-road enough for the district,” said Rob Stutzman, a Sacramento-based GOP strategist. “So now, if anything, it’s made it easier for (Republicans) to walk away, because they probably weren’t really coming here to start with. So they can focus on other races.”
“This is impossible for Howze unless something befalls Harder,” Stutzman added. “And maybe not even then.”
Howze, a former Turlock city councilman and the Republican nominee to run against Rep. Josh Harder, D-Turlock, lost most of his Republican support after Politico unearthed social media posts on his accounts that denigrated Muslims, immigrants, Black Lives Matter, a Parkland shooting survivor and others.
Howze denied he wrote the posts, blaming someone else who had access to his accounts, but has declined multiple times to name who it could have been. Some of the posts were signed with his name.
The National Republican Congressional Committee withdrew its endorsement last week, and McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, pulled his over the weekend.
“In light of Mr. Howze’s disappointing comments, Leader McCarthy has withdrawn his endorsement,” said Drew Florio, a spokesman for McCarthy. “As the Leader has previously stated, hateful rhetoric has no place within the Republican Party.”
Howze on Monday, in a video obtained by Politico, told supporters that McCarthy had pledged to continue backing him.
“We’ve talked with Leader McCarthy,” Howze reportedly told supporters in a video call. “They’ve told us, keep doing what we’re doing. Raise money. If in September we are one of the competitive races in California that they will be here to come into the race.”
Florio said it was not true that McCarthy recently spoke with Howze. Howze’s campaign, when McClatchy asked for a response, said Howze had meant the NRCC, not McCarthy.
But Torunn Sinclair, spokeswoman for the NRCC, also denied they’d had such a conversation with Howze.
“That’s news to us,” she said.
Florio said McCarthy had “determined that Mr. Howze was no longer deserving of his endorsement” after he reviewed the social media posts over the weekend.
Howze is trying to win California’s 10th Congressional District, which former Republican Rep. Jeff Denham held until Harder unseated him 2018. It was one of seven formerly Republican California congressional districts that Democrats flipped that year.
Howze has pledged to plow ahead and is not looking to drop out, according to his campaign, even it means funding his own campaign through November. The campaign sent social media posts from some Republican groups, such as California College Republicans and the California Impact Republicans, who have pledged to continue supporting him.
“Since day one of this campaign, I have never been the preferred choice of the political class or D.C. establishment,” the campaign said in a statement. “That hasn’t changed, nor has my commitment to stand up to the party bosses and special interests and defeat Josh Harder this November.”
Republicans could submit a write-in candidate, but that would further cement Harder’s chances of winning, Stutzman said, as it would split the vote between the GOP.
Republican Bob Elliott, a San Joaquin County supervisor who was running for the seat but lost in the primary, did not return a request for comment on whether he was considering running as a write-in candidate. The NRCC did not comment when asked by McClatchy if it is seeking possible write-in candidates for the district.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been sending out releases trying to tie Howze to other House races in California.
For example, former Rep. David Valadao, a Republican from Hanford who is challenging Rep. TJ Cox, D-Fresno, for a Southern San Joaquin Valley seat, had donated $2,500 to Howze’s campaign. The DCCC lambasted Valadao in public releases before Valadao’s campaign said it had asked Howze to give that money to a local food bank.
But those attacks are unlikely to matter to voters in other districts, Stutzman said, and could even put Republicans in a better position in other races, since they don’t have to focus on Howze anymore.
“I don’t think they were coming to spend money here anyway,” Stutzman said. “I think Republican recruiting of candidates has been outstanding except for (Howze). It’s not like the Republicans have lost one of their star recruits.”
Stutzman said those “star recruits” in California include Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, who recently won a special election to take former Rep. Katie Hill’s old seat, Valadao, Young Kim, who is challenging Rep. Gil Cisneros, D-Los Angeles, and Michelle Steel, who is running against Rep. Harley Rouda, D-Newport Beach.
Those four seem to be the renewed focus of the GOP in California and are listed on the NRCC’s “Young Guns” website, which indicates non-incumbent candidates in whom the NRCC are planning to heavily invest. Howze and Greg Raths, who is challenging Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, have both been removed from the Young Guns website.
This story was originally published May 26, 2020 at 4:59 PM with the headline "Ted Howze lost GOP leader’s 2020 endorsement. Does he have a chance in November?."
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