Here are the stakes for the top 5 Democratic candidates in the Nevada caucuses
Second is the new first — at least in Nevada.
With Bernie Sanders leading polls heading into Saturday’s caucuses, each of his four leading Democratic rivals are striving for the silver medal, a finish that would provide a fresh case for why they are the most viable alternative to the democratic socialist.
The third- and fourth-place candidates may well soldier on, but will face mounting skepticism about the rationales for their continued campaigns, especially as middle-of-the-road Democrats begin to fret more publicly about Sanders’ ascension and money becomes tougher to attract.
And a fifth place is going to be difficult to spin as a success, no matter who ends up there.
“I think it’s clear Bernie’s going to win. I got four calls from Bernie’s campaign this morning. There was somebody at my door yesterday from Bernie,” said Dan Hart, a Las Vegas-based Democratic consultant. “Second place is going to be the story.”
Of course, an upset of the front-running Sanders would be a major development and send an already uncertain race into another turbulent phase of confusion.
Nevada results could be tabulated by late afternoon eastern time, though Democratic officials aren’t even promising final tallies by Saturday after feeling stung from their Iowa experience.
Whenever the results arrive, here are the pre-caucus expectations for each of the top five candidates:
Sanders: Just Keep Winning
While all the usual caveats about polling a convoluted caucus system apply, Sanders has led all three credible surveys released this month, averaging 30 percent of the vote. That figure would be a significant milestone for Sanders if he’s able to get there.
In both Iowa and New Hampshire, the Vermont senator topped out at 26 percent, which was only good enough to slightly outpace Pete Buttigieg in raw votes. A win is a win, but a double-digit victory would go an even longer way toward sealing his front-runner status, and may even help dislodge Joe Biden’s grip on South Carolina, which votes next Saturday.
A substantial victory would likely mean that he dominated with Latino caucus-goers, a crucial voting bloc for Democrats to energize in the general election. It would also brushback his adversaries, demonstrating that he overcame a significant double-pronged campaign against him by the Culinary Union and a pro-Israel super PAC.
An upset of Sanders would certainly be harmful to him, mostly because it would be surprising and signal he can be stopped. But it wouldn’t be catastrophic. Of all the candidates — outside of Michael Bloomberg, who is not competing in Nevada — it’s Sanders who has the resources and organization to sustain losses and recover with a path toward the nomination.
Buttigieg: The Sanders Alternative?
The 38-year-old former South Bend, Ind., mayor has proven himself to be Sanders’ stiffest competition so far, and actually holds a slight delegate advantage. But Nevada will be the first test to show if Buttigieg can bust through his biggest perceived obstacle and demonstrate support from nonwhite voters.
In 2016, Latinos made up 19 percent of the state’s Democratic caucus electorate, while African-Americans were 13 percent. Activists have been working vigorously to lift participation rates among people of color this year. For Buttigieg, this will be the first opportunity to try to shed his reputation as a candidate who largely appeals to white people.
“If he came in second or third, I think it would be huge,” said Cindy Trigg, a caucus precinct captain for Buttigieg in Lake Tahoe, Nevada. “People haven’t yet heard of him or enough about him. It would mean people of different diversities are hearing more about him.”
Second place would also mean back-to-back runner-up finishes for Buttigieg, keeping him the closest to Sanders in the delegate hunt and permitting him the very reasonable argument that he’s the strongest contender to take Sanders on over the longer run.
Warren’s Biggest Gamble Yet
Elizabeth Warren’s no-holds-barred debate performance Wednesday, in which she raised millions of dollars by ruthlessly bulldozing multiple opponents, coupled with her later head-turning refusal to denounce a super PAC running ads on her behalf amounts to one of the biggest gambles of the 2020 race.
Nevada Democrats will either make it look like an act of strategic brilliance by propelling the Massachusetts senator into a surprise finish that beats expectations and revives what was thought to be a campaign in demise.
Or it will look like an act of desperation by a candidate who was pledging unity and denouncing her rivals super PACs just a few weeks ago.
After a third-place finish in Iowa and a fourth-place showing in New Hampshire, Warren needs a slingshot in order to hand her Super Tuesday supporters a reason to believe they aren’t wasting their vote.
A post-debate poll from the liberal group DataProgress found Warren vaulting into second place in Nevada within the margin of error. Just a few points may separate her from the surprise second place she needs and fourth, which could spell the end of the road.
Biden’s Comeback Must Start Now
For months, Biden’s campaign repeatedly downgraded the first two contests. The Democratic nominee would not be decided until black and brown voters cast ballots, they have said repeatedly.
It allowed them to brush off Biden’s epic collapse in Iowa and New Hampshire, where the electorates were relatively small and overwhelmingly white.
Now, their moment of reckoning has arrived.
Biden’s campaign manager reportedly told supporters that second place in Nevada is the goal, a statement that makes anything worse than that look like another brutal defeat.
The former vice president has been endorsed by the Rep. Steven Horsford, the first African-American to represent Nevada in Congress, and the Latino Victory Fund. High-profile backers didn’t help him much in Iowa and New Hampshire, but some Democratic operatives think Nevada will prove different, partly because his opponents are weaker and less established there.
“Feels like the race is for third after Bernie and Biden,” said Matthew DeFalco, a Nevada Democratic operative who worked for Seth Moulton and Deval Patrick’s campaigns. “Biden led for most of the race and he closed strong. He didn’t get Culinary officially, but Horsford and State Sen. Yvanna [Cancela] and Dina [Titus] on the stump is enough. And it helps him a ton that Bloomberg isn’t on the ballot here.”
Klobmentum Slowed?
Klobmentum — the phrase used to describe the momentum of Amy Klobuchar — transformed from a tongue-and-cheek online joke to reality once New Hampshire’s results started pouring in.
But Nevada may poke a hole in the Minnesota senator’s rising balloon.
Klobuchar faces the same core problem Buttigieg has in attracting nonwhite voters. She was slower to organize in Nevada than almost all of her rivals. On the stump, she’s appeared visibly less comfortable in front of Hispanic audiences and her flub of the Mexican president’s name during a Univision interview became an ongoing kerfuffle that lingered in the media either for far too long.
Klobuchar is probably the least likely of the five to finish second in Nevada. But if she does, the “Klobmentum” moniker may need to be upgraded to capture how seismic an upset it would be.
Want to chat about the 2020 Election?
Sign up to text our national politics correspondent, Dave Catanese, on everything Elections 2020 related. Receive texts with Dave's thoughts, images and musings from the Campaign Trail and text him back directly.
Join NowThis story was originally published February 22, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
