Who can capitalize in California on Joe Biden’s drop to second tier in Iowa?
Results from the Iowa caucuses are slowly coming in, and they do not appear to bode well for Joe Biden.
The former vice president is in fourth place with 62 percent of the precincts reporting. While the results could change as there are many outstanding votes, he doesn’t seem to be in a prime position to come away with many delegates.
Biden has made electability a central argument to his campaign, arguing he is the likeliest person to defeat President Donald Trump in key swing states in a potential general election matchup. While Biden has downplayed Iowa by citing his appeal to black South Carolina voters and later voting states, some campaigns are seeking to capitalize on his struggles by ramping up efforts in California — the most delegate-rich state in the nation.
“After more than a year of this primary, the field is as unsettled as ever,” said Mike Buckley, California communications director for Michael Bloomberg’s campaign. “No one has made the sale or even come close to it.”
On Monday, Iowa’s Democratic Party failed to report any results because of technical complications with a new smartphone application and clogged phone lines that made it difficult for local volunteers to report results. Some campaigns have also expressed concerns about the accuracy of the calculations being made at individual precincts.
Five top candidates have emerged out of Iowa, including Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar and Biden, with Sanders, Buttigieg and Warren appearing the likeliest to win the largest share of delegates. As of 3:45 p.m., Buttigieg holds a narrow lead over Sanders. Warren is in third place, followed by Biden and Klobuchar. This division has created an opportunity for Bloomberg to capitalize on a splintered field with widely dispersed delegates.
Bloomberg spots an opening
At a campaign stop in Fresno on Monday, Bloomberg noted he would soon have 20 offices open across California and more than 800 staff members throughout the Golden State. He has also directed his campaign to boost ad spending and double his advertising reach. His campaign estimates it will soon have a field staff of more than 2,000 people across the country.
On Tuesday, Bloomberg’s team revealed it has doubled its California endorsements among elected officials, gaining the support of state Sens. Richard Pan, D-Sacramento, and Bob Hertzberg, D-Los Angeles. Bloomberg has also taken advantage of the limited presence other candidates have had in the state recently.
Bloomberg is the only major Democratic candidate who has visited California in the last three weeks, according to a Sacramento Bee analysis of more than 400 candidate visits.
During a trip to Sacramento on Monday morning, Bloomberg said he plans to run a national race against President Donald Trump rather than focus on specific Democratic competitors.
“I’m not running against the other Democratic candidates,” he told a crowd of 150 supporters. “I’m running against Donald Trump, and we’re going to beat him.”
Who gains from messy caucus?
With no immediate victor and New Hampshire’s primary one week away, there’s minimal pressure on the Democratic candidates to drop out of the race.
Additionally, Trump’s Tuesday State of the Union address and his likely acquittal in the Senate impeachment trial on Wednesday are also sucking up oxygen in news coverage and preventing candidates from getting the post-Iowa boom or bust they may have expected.
“There could be an argument that creating more suspense in Iowa will make it a bigger deal, but it’s just kind of a bloody mess,” said Paul Mitchell, a California political consultant. “I don’t know that anything from Iowa is going to be as impactful as we would’ve expected.”
Biden’s campaign cited an earlier statement highlighting how it believes it “will emerge with the delegates we need to continue on our path way to make Joe Biden the Democratic nominee.”
The campaigns of Warren and Buttigieg declined to comment. Sanders’ California team pointed to the senator’s remarks on Tuesday expressing disappointment in the slow process and taking aim at Buttigieg for declaring victory Monday night before any results had come in from the state party.
“I don’t know how anybody declares victory before you have an official statement as to election results,” Sanders told reporters.
Will California get more attention?
The struggles to quickly get the results out of Iowa means other states will get increased attention. While California is not one of the first four in the nation to vote, it is likely to draw more attention from media outlets and candidates after the Feb. 11 New Hampshire primary.
“As soon as Iowa’s over, there’s clearly this immediate push to New Hampshire,” Mitchell said. “We’re going to have a few days of New Hampshire frenzy, but I really do believe all campaigns will come to California. They won’t be able to spend all their time in Nevada like they focused on Iowa.”
Rusty Hicks, chairman of California’s Democratic Party, said he is pleased with the level of attention California since it bumped its primary up from June to March. He said the switch has forced candidates to meet with voters across the state rather than just show up for high-dollar fundraisers.
“The vast majority of voters in California are going to make a fairly quick decision when it is convenient for them to participate and engage,” Hicks said. “More than I think in any other election, candidates have been in California making their case. ... California has gotten a lot of attention. I think there will be even more, given there are 494 (overall) delegates coming out of California versus 155 (total pledged delegates) in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.”
This story was originally published February 4, 2020 at 6:37 PM with the headline "Who can capitalize in California on Joe Biden’s drop to second tier in Iowa?."