Why does Iowa matter for 2020 Democrats? A brief history of make-or-break caucuses
There’s an obvious reason that Democratic 2020 presidential hopefuls care about the Iowa caucuses: Voters in the state are the first in the country to have their say in the election.
Beyond that, Iowa can help propel candidates to more success elsewhere. Or, on the flip side, it can help narrow the field by encouraging poor performers to drop out before the contests that come later.
Here’s a quick rundown of past Iowa races, and a brief history of candidates who have succeeded thanks to an early boost in the Hawkeye state — as well as contenders who went on to win their party’s nomination despite losing in Iowa.
Do Iowa winners usually go on to win the nomination?
Five of the last seven Democrats to win Iowa in years that the party’s nomination was contested ended up being the Democratic nominee, according to the Los Angeles Times — compared with just three winners of the next-up New Hampshire primary who went on to win the nomination.
Those five recent Iowa winners who eventually nabbed the nomination were Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Kerry, Al Gore and Walter Mondale. (Only one ended up in the White House.)
In 2016, Clinton faced real challenges only from Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Gov. Martin O’Malley of Maryland — and narrowly beat Sanders. But the field entering Iowa this year is more sprawling than usual, with more than 10 candidates in contention.
“The closest examples to this election may be the 1984, 2004 and 2008 contests. Each was competitive with large — or so it seemed at the time — fields of eight candidates apiece,” the Times reports. “Iowa trimmed the field each time. New Hampshire eliminated even more of those running.”
When did Iowa rise to prominence?
Steve Kornacki writes for NBC that Iowa’s “make-or-break power was revealed almost by accident” after George McGovern won 23 percent there in the first nominating contest in 1972 — a strong showing, even if it only got him third place.
“When McGovern, a senator from South Dakota, ended up the Democratic nominee, future candidates took note,” Kornacki writes.
Who has Iowa vaulted to success?
In 2008, then-Sen. Barack Obama beat out early national front-runner Hillary Clinton to win the Iowa caucuses and then went on to win the nomination.
Obama had led in Iowa polling, but “ended up exceeding expectations with an 8-point victory margin, the significance of which was only enhanced by the fact that Clinton actually finished in third, slightly behind [North Carolina Sen. John] Edwards,” Kornacki writes.
“Iowa gave Barack Obama the same thing it will give any candidate that surges and that beats the presumptive front-runner,” said Cornell Belcher, a 2008 Obama pollster, according to the New York Times. “It gives bounce and credibility.”
Iowa has helped candidates as far back as the 1970s, Business Insider reports.
“In 1976 when Jimmy Carter was running for president, a plurality of caucus goers was technically ‘uncommitted,’” according to the publication. “But since he was the highest-placing candidate and vastly outperformed expectations, the media narrative framed him as the winner and he went on to secure the nomination.”
Who has won the nomination without winning Iowa?
The most recent example is Bill Clinton — a Democratic candidate who also went on to win the presidency, twice.
But the 1992 primary Clinton first competed in included two candidates who made those earlier states a heavy lift for outsiders, according to the Los Angeles Times: “Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, which effectively rendered the caucuses moot, and Sen. Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts, whose victory in New Hampshire was discounted because of his next-door neighbor status.”
