Does the Republican incumbent in this Democratic district have the race in hand? | McClatchy Washington Bureau

The House of Representatives race between an incumbent Republican congressman and his Democratic challenger may be closer than it appears.

In Illinois’ 12th District, Rep. Mike Bost has continuously out-raised lawyer C.J. Baricevic. The most recent Federal Election Commission reports show Bost has over $750,000 in cash on hand, while Baricevic has a little more than $100,000.

Both the Cook Political Report and Rothenburg & Gonzales Political Report have rated the race as “likely Republican.”

“We’re up on fundraising,” Bost said recently. “We’re almost to the point, with 20 days out, that radio and TV markets have become flooded with people not paying attention anymore.”

But the district’s history as a Democratic region may work to Baricevic’s advantage.

“It’s always been a moderate district, but always a Democratic one,” said John Jackson, visiting professor at the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University. “So that makes it still competitive, even though Mike Bost won handily two years ago. That was a wave election, and Republicans won everywhere there was even a semi-marginal district.”

Until 2014, Belleville, Illinois’, Metro East area had been electing Democrats to the House for more than two decades. Popular Democratic Reps. Jerry Costello and Melvin Price represented the 21st and 24th districts, respectively, which were redistricted into the 12th District by 1993.

Costello, who then represented the 12th District until 2013, was succeeded by Democratic Rep. William Enyart. Enyart served one term before losing to Bost in 2014. That year, House Republicans gained their largest majority since 1928.

Party-level support is also indicative of a tighter race.

In February 2015, Bost was announced as one of 12 congressmen in the National Republican Congressional Committee’s Patriot Program, which provides fundraising support for the GOP’s most vulnerable incumbents.

And in September, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced that Baricevic’s campaign would be considered an “emerging race” included in the committee’s Red to Blue program, which provides funding for competitive races.

Additionally, voters who didn’t cast ballots in 2014 could make a difference in 2016. It is predicted that Democratic turnout will be significantly higher this November.

“If you compare 2012 to 2014, we had tremendous voter turnout drops,” Baricevic said, a fact his campaign is using to encourage voter participation. “We’re putting ourselves in a great place to win, focusing on getting our message out, and making sure people are equipped to vote.”

In a race like this, issues could be the deciding factor. For Bost and Baricevic, it may come down to coal, an integral part of the 12th District’s economy, in which eight of Illinois’s 19 coal mines are located.

At the end of 2015, a total of 3,728 coal company employees were reported in the 12th District, according to Phil Gonet, president of the Illinois Coal Association. But by June, the number had dropped to 2,825.

In response, Bost has pledged to crack down on energy regulations enacted by the Obama administration.

“We’re not West Virginia, but the coal industry brings quality jobs to Southern Illinois,” Bost said, “You can’t mine anywhere with the current overreaching, over-burdensome regulations. It’s going to destroy our economy, and people know that here.”

Baricevic has focused on keeping the Southern Illinois coal industry intact through clean-coal technology.

“We need to make jobs a priority. And that might mean that we have to invest in private industry, like investing in clean coal, and making sure that coal in Southern Illinois burns clean,” Baricevic said.

Paula Bradshaw, the Green Party candidate also vying for the 12th District seat, could siphon off some of Baricevic’s voters if the race between the Democratic candidate and her were close, according to Jackson.

Bradshaw received just 117 votes during Illinois’ primary in March, and less than 6 percent of the vote during her 2012 and 2014 congressional bids.