Donald Trump’s troubles in the polls could give Washington state considerably more clout on Capitol Hill next year.
The state’s two Democratic senators, Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell, will lead influential committees in 2017 if Republicans lose control of the Senate on Nov. 8.
The odds appear to be increasing: On Tuesday, the Cook Political Report predicted that Democrats will pick up from five to seven additional seats, more than enough to become the majority party.
Since the release of the Access Hollywood tape, Senate Republicans have seen their fortunes dip, particularly in states like Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada and Pennsylvania where Clinton has established a lead.
Cook Political Report
If Hillary Clinton wins the presidency, Democrats will need only a net gain of four seats to produce a 50-50 tie with Republicans. They’d still control the chamber since the vice president would get the tie-breaking vote.
Trump's slide in the polls is impacting Senate Republicans, putting Democrats in position to pick up 5-7 seats. https://t.co/cT8XviHgUc
— Jennifer Duffy (@jennifereduffy) October 25, 2016
The Cook report, an independent nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes congressional campaigns, said Republican prospects dimmed on Oct. 7 when the Washington Post released an “Access Hollywood” video showing Trump boasting about kissing and groping women.
“Since the release of the Access Hollywood tape, Senate Republicans have seen their fortunes dip, particularly in states like Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada and Pennsylvania where Clinton has established a lead,” the report said.
Murray is up for re-election this year while Cantwell is not.
In the latest Elway Poll, released Monday, Murray had the backing of 58 percent of those surveyed, while her Republican challenger, Chris Vance, had 34 percent.
Murray’s in line to become the chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, a job that Independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has said he’d like to have, too.
But she faces two other big decisions.
Murray could have a chance to lead the powerful Appropriations Committee. That would happen if Vermont Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy decided not to take the post, allowing him to lead the Senate Judiciary Committee instead.
And she must decide whether to challenge Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin for the No. 2 Democratic leadership slot.
Cantwell, meanwhile, would become chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.
While a Democratic takeover of the Senate would be good news for Washington state, the Republican senators in neighboring Idaho would both lose an opportunity to lead full committees for the first time.
If Republicans maintain control, Idaho Sen. Mike Crapo, who’s running for a fourth term, would become chairman of the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, while Jim Risch, the state’s junior GOP senator, would lead the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee.
Rob Hotakainen: 202-383-6154, @HotakainenRob
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