Democrats wouldn’t necessarily have to win back the House of Representatives to gain more influence over the chamber. They just need to win enough seats to neutralize the hard-right Freedom Caucus.
Kentucky’s lone Democrat in the House, Rep. John Yarmuth, said the party would need to win 30 seats to regain control. But if they can just narrow the Republican majority by 20 votes, Yarmuth said, Speaker Paul Ryan would need votes from the chamber’s minority.
“Then they can’t do anything without us,” Yarmuth said.
Any party needs a bare 218 votes to pass anything, and Republicans have 247 seats. But around 40 of them belong to the Freedom Caucus, which famously stymied former Speaker John Boehner and drove the Ohio Republican out of Congress last year.
247 Size of current Republican House majority
A 20-vote gain for Democrats is more plausible than winning an outright majority, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Cook rates 17 House districts as toss-ups; three held by Democrats and 14 held by Republicans. Another six seats held by Republicans are either lean or likely Democrat. Meanwhile, only one seat held by a Democrat is considered likely Republican.
218 Number of House votes needed to pass anything
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump could be a decisive factor.
Many House and Senate Republicans have distanced themselves from Trump or rejected him altogether for a 2005 “Access Hollywood” tape where he’s heard bragging about using his celebrity status to seduce a married woman and kissing and touching women without their consent.
40 Members of hard-right House Freedom Caucus
Democrats had already felt bullish on their prospects for flipping the Senate, but the Trump tape’s fallout has potentially put more suburban House districts currently held by Republicans in play.
Yarmuth said a smaller Republican majority could free Ryan of his obligation to appease the Freedom Caucus.
“They won’t be able to function that way with 225 votes,” he said.
Democrats had already felt bullish on their prospects for flipping the Senate, but the Trump tape’s fallout has potentially put more suburban House districts currently held by Republicans in play.
Curtis Tate: 202-383-6018, @tatecurtis
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