Play the numbers game with Monday night’s debate and wow – it could make a big difference.
An estimated 100 million people are expected to watch Monday’s presidential debate – levels usually reached only by Super Bowls – and as many as one-fourth could decide their votes based on what they see.
Eight to 11 million viewers are regarded as undecided, and another 13 million are in the category of supporting a candidate but persuadable.
President Barack Obama won the 2012 election by 5 million out of 129.2 million votes cast. He won in 2008 by 9.5 million as 131.4 million voters. And those elections weren’t considered as close as this one.
Nor did those elections involve the sort of unknowns and celebrity this one features: Clinton, the first woman nominated by a major party. Trump, the rare candidate with no previous government or political experience. Two nominees with huge negatives. Two media luminaries already well-known to the public.
Paul Levinson, a New York-based author who has written extensively on media, estimated about 100 million people will be watching. The RealClearPolitics latest poll average has 8 percent unsure about their choice in a four-way race and 11 percent in a Clinton-Trump matchup.
And the latest McClatchy-Marist poll found 6 percent of Clinton voters and 7 percent of Trump backers saying they could vote differently.
The debate will begin at 9 p.m. ET and will last for 90 minutes. NBC’s Lester Holt is the moderator. It will be broadcast by the major networks and social media platforms.
David Lightman: 202-383-6101, @lightmandavid
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