Roll Call: Most vulnerable House members largely Democratic

Republicans are predicted to gain seats in the House of Representatives this fall, and a new list of the most vulnerable House members from Roll Call indicated why.

“The majority of the names are Democrats facing slogs to re-election in tough districts,” says a new analysis by Roll Call’s Emily Cahn and Abby Livingston.

“Nearly all of the Republicans on the list made it due to isolated issues — like campaign problems, personal and legal missteps — instead of the national political environment,” they found. The nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report predicts Republicans can gain two to 10 seats this fall. Republicans now have a 233 to 199 House majority.

Topping their list is Rep. Bill Enyart, D-Ill. Among his troubles is Gov. Pat Quinn, a Democrat who’s trailing his Republican foe. “That imperils Enyart,” Roll Call says, since he’s “a freshman who hasn’t yet built a local brand during his first term in office.”

On the other hand, it notes, “Democrats are spending big to paint Enyart’s GOP challenger as unhinged, using footage of state Rep. Mike Bost in a tirade on the state House floor to try and make him unpalatable to voters.”

Next on the list is Rep. Michael Grimm, R-N.Y., as the analysis cites potential legal problems, followed by Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Ariz., Rich Nolan, D-Minn., Scott Peters, D-Calif., Nick Rahall, D-W.Va., Brad Schneider, D-Ill., Carol Shea-Porter, D-N.H., Steve Southerland, R-Fla., and Lee Terry, R-Neb.