Nancy Pelosi thought Democrats would win big in the House. What happened?
Nancy Pelosi and independent handicappers were predicting a big night for Democrats in the House, projecting gains that could reach 10 to 20 seats.
“We intend to hold the House and grow our numbers,” the House speaker told The Associated Press last month
Instead, results and projections show that while Democrats will retain their House majority, so far they have a net loss of seats.
While the California Democrat is almost certain to remain as speaker, she’s now going to have to deal with a fresh message from voters that could make it harder to pass economic relief and other measures.
Vulnerable members could be more skittish about taking risks, analysts said Wednesday, and the moderate voices who could help push legislation through a Senate that’s likely to have a Republican majority will be diminished.
“Where does she go to find the votes? There are few moderate Democrats left,” said Susan Roberts, professor of political science at Davidson College in North Carolina.
There were some small rumblings Wednesday of an effort to replace Pelosi as speaker, but that appears unlikely.
“She’s been the face of defiance to Trump,” said Ross Baker, a congressional expert and professor of political science at Rutgers University.
And, he said, “I can’t see the most progressive members ganging up to depose the first woman speaker.”
Pelosi’s biggest immediate challenge is helping to push an economic relief plan through Congress.
She was upbeat Wednesday, saying in a statement that the party’s candidates “enabled Democrats to hold the House and flipped critical battleground states, building our margins across the board. Our discipline in building a massive battlefield proved essential in keeping the majority.”
She has been adamant that Washington badly needs to approve a multi-trillion economic relief package. Negotiations with the White House have stalled, partly over the price tag and Democrats’ insistence that state and local aid be included.
Many vulnerable Democrats had pushed hard for some kind of package to be enacted before the election, as they stumped for votes from people hit hard by the pandemic and recession.
Baker saw Pelosi’s insistence to hold out for a bigger plan as hurting vulnerable Democratic incumbents.
“They said, ‘Give us something to take back to our voters. So you give Trump a victory? Big deal,’’’ he said. “People (who lost) paid a price for that.”
How Trump helped Republicans
Trump had an impact on depressing any Democratic wave, the experts said. His popularity in swing areas “dramatically” boosted Republicans, said Nathan Gonzales, editor of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan firm that prior to the election predicted Democrats would net 14 to 20 seats.
Trump also helped in a different way. “Republicans may have benefited from some ticket-splitting against the expectation of Biden winning,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political analysis group that predicted a net Democratic gain of 10 seats.
GOP loyalists may have been opposed to Trump, this thinking went, but they still were eager to vote for other party candidates.
Democrats next year could have the smallest House majority of any party since the 2003-05 House.
Current projections say Democrats will have around 230 seats. With 218 needed for a majority, that means Pelosi could afford to lose a dozen votes, assuming Republicans stick together as they usually do.
The vote on the Democrats’ HEROES Act, which would have provided $3 trillion in economic aid, illustrates Pelosi’s challenge. Fourteen Democrats, most of them vulnerable centrists, opposed the bill. Most said it didn’t provide help where it was most needed, such as small business.
Some races too close to call
Democratic incumbents, generally more moderate members, lost races in Minnesota, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Iowa, South Carolina and Florida. In California, freshman Democrat Rep. TJ Cox was losing narrowly in a race too close to call.
The party picked up two seats in North Carolina, but failed to topple vulnerable Republican incumbents in Arkansas, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Texas, seats where Democrats campaigned as centrists.
Nor did its candidates win seats in Virginia, Texas and New York that had been seen as winnable.
Democrats insisted that the setback won’t be lethal.
“While the final results do not match our optimism, these campaigns made important progress for Democrats and built infrastructure that will pay off in future election cycles,” said A’shanti Gholar, president of Emerge, which works to help Democratic women get elected.
“Change is incremental,” she said, “and no one knows that better than women and people of color who have been fighting for representation for decades.”
This story was originally published November 4, 2020 at 5:45 PM with the headline "Nancy Pelosi thought Democrats would win big in the House. What happened?."
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