Orlando massacre is unlikely to lead to new gun control measures | McClatchy Washington Bureau

The latest political gun battle looks as though it’ll end the usual way, with no meaningful change in the nation’s gun laws.

Passage of strong legislation making it tougher for people on federal terrorist watch lists is a long shot. Senate votes are anticipated early next week, and so far, Democrats and Republicans are engaged in their usual partisan squabbling with no compromise in sight.

It’s a fresh signal that once again, despite the horror of 49 people shot dead early Sunday by a gunman in Orlando, Florida, the nation remains sharply divided over gun rights.

Though presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump indicated this week that he’s willing to look at some changes, few GOP lawmakers are eager to do much, if any, tinkering with the laws. Vulnerable senators in swing states are trying to be careful not to offend gun owners and have been reluctant to side with Democrats.

Chances are there will be Senate votes Monday on a Democratic watch list plan and a Republican plan. Neither is likely to get enough support to survive, but everyone will be able to tell constituents they really, really tried.

There’s no immediate hope of anything more sweeping, such as a revival of the assault weapons ban that expired a dozen years ago.

Gun control advocates had hoped the political mood would soften enough to do more. In the five days since the gunman killed 49 people at an Orlando nightclub, they’ve engaged in an almost unprecedented congressional effort to effect change.

Tens of thousands of constituents have contacted congressional offices demanding action. Democratic senators spoke on the floor for 14 hours and 50 minutes, ending at 2:11 a.m. Thursday, advocating tougher laws. The filibuster generated an estimated 530,000 tweets before midnight.

One notable change has been obvious in the gun control debate: “This is now tied to terrorism,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn.

But it’s also telling that the biggest push is limited, “a start,” said Blumenthal. Their best hope is to win passage of a measure that would make it harder for someone on a federal terrorist watch list to buy a weapon. The Senate rejected a similar plan in December, a few days after a couple, inspired by terrorist groups, killed 14 people at a holiday party in San Bernardino, California.

Winning approval of a watch list measure will again be tough. Democrats are pushing a broad plan authored by Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif. It would permit the Justice Department to immediately stop gun sales to people on the watch list if the government finds a “reasonable belief that the weapon would be used in connection with terrorism.”

Republicans are expected to counter with a proposal from Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Texas. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., praised the Cornyn measure Thursday and labeled the Democratic filibuster a “campaign talk-a-thon.”

Cornyn has proposed giving Justice 72 hours after someone on a watch list tried to buy a gun to determine whether they could purchase the weapon. To permanently bar the sale, Justice would have to show probable cause in court. Democrats argue that this would overburden Justice.

The Senate is also expected to vote on a Democratic plan next week to expand background checks for prospective gun owners. It rejected a similar plan in December.

The dueling proposals suggest the sort of political gamesmanship that voters have signaled they abhor: Republicans vote en masse next week for the Cornyn measure, while Democrats back Feinstein. Nothing gets approved, since it takes 60 votes to advance the legislation.

Gun rights advocates vow to fight hard against any restrictions. “Any infringement (on the right to own a gun) violates the Second Amendment,” said Larry Pratt, executive director emeritus of Gun Owners of America.

He found plenty of Republican support. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said using the Orlando attack to seek tougher gun laws was a “political distraction.”

“The American people find it ridiculous that in response to an ISIS terror attack, the Democrats go on high dudgeon that we’ve got to restrict the Second Amendment rights of law-abiding citizens,” Cruz said.

Democrats, though, saw this week’s events as an important turning point, hoping that the tie to terrorism could be enough to swing some vulnerable Republican senators to Feinstein’s side. Seven incumbents are up for re-election in states President Barack Obama carried in 2012, and some have signaled they’re willing to back tougher watch list policies.

Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., said Thursday that he and Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., would co-sponsor a measure to expedite an FBI investigation of any prospective gun buyer who is or has been investigated for ties to terrorism.

Sens. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, Pat Toomey, R-Pa., Kelly Ayotte,R-N.H., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., have also indicated they’re open to tougher watch list restrictions.

But anything more profound, anything to dramatically curb, or at least expand, background checks for gun purchases? Unlikely.

“The question is, is going after the Second Amendment how you stop terrorism?” said House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis. “That’s not how you stop terrorism.”