Foreseeing an election struggle, Republicans take a page from NC’s playbook
Happy Monday morning! This is Danielle Battaglia with another Under the Dome edition focused on President Donald Trump’s administration.
I have bad news for Republicans (cheery way to start a Monday, eh?).
It’s well-documented, since the mid-1800s, that it is difficult for the party occupying the White House to win in the midterms.
Why?
There are several factors at play, from low voter turnout to voters making the election a referendum on the president.
This means that if a Democrat occupied 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., they would be concerned in 2026. But that’s not the case.
Republicans, however, believe they found a way to circumvent this problem.
Taking advice from North Carolina’s playbook, Texas Republicans want to redraw the state’s congressional districts mid-decade in order to put voters in districts that would make it likely for Republicans to win an additional five seats.
This is important because Republicans lead the U.S. House by just seven members. There are also four vacancies — three of which were Democrats — due to three lawmakers’ deaths and one’s resignation.
North Carolinians are well aware by now that it is possible to manipulate voter data to draw districts favorable to one party or another.
But North Carolinians may not realize that redrawing maps is only supposed to happen once a decade.
Shocking, I know … because you live in North Carolina …
Each House member currently represents about 760,000 people. Each time a census counts the population of a state, which happens once every 10 years, it also determines how many lawmakers should represent that state in the House. Then new maps are drawn based on that information.
The reason North Carolina’s maps are redrawn more often: court orders. Typically, judges find that lawmakers egregiously redrew a district, gerrymandering it by race or party, and they find it illegal, telling the lawmakers to go back to the drawing board … literally.
There’s no court order in Texas. So under normal circumstances, what’s happening there should not be happening now.
But wait, there’s more.
Democratic-led states are now threatening to follow suit if Texas goes through with this plan. That includes California, Illinois, Maryland, New York and New Jersey. But that will be difficult in states that have switched to less partisan methods of redrawing maps.
And Republican-led states like Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, South Carolina, Nebraska and Florida are now saying they may do the same.
The New York Times has a good breakdown on how all this would play out.
My colleague Kyle Ingram follows the redistricting process in North Carolina extensively and broke down this week whether we can expect North Carolina to get involved in this process and what Democrats can (not) do to stop it.
Adding to all of this, Trump is now calling for a “new” census that would not count immigrants in the country without legal authorization. Legal experts say a mid-decade census for redistricting would be a violation of the Constitution, as would an attempt to exclude people.
This is a debate you’re going to want to keep an eye on.
Senate race updates
Republican candidate Andy Nilsson suspended his U.S. Senate campaign Friday afternoon, saying that Trump’s endorsement of Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley for the job was one of his deciding factors.
Nilsson made his announcement on social media, saying, “Tough decision, but the money just wasn’t there.”
He added that he plans to help keep the seat conservative.
Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican from Huntersville, currently occupies the seat in the upper chamber but announced he would suspend his reelection campaign after a policy battle with Trump and Senate Republicans over Medicaid cuts and how they would impact North Carolina.
Last month, Whatley announced he would run instead, becoming the most prominent name in the Republican primary race. Also running are Don Brown, a former JAG officer; and Brooks Agnew, an author and engineer.
On the Democratic side, former Gov. Roy Cooper is running. No other Democrat is currently in the race.
Other stories from the week
- Catherine Muccigrosso explains how Trump’s executive order penalizing banks for denying services to conservatives and cryptocurrency-industry supporters could impact Charlotte.
- Korie Dean and Sophia Bailly break down the impact the Trump administration’s policies are having on the nearly 25,000 international students who study in North Carolina and the ripple effect that has on the state.
- Travel bans and visa delays are affecting the UNC System’s 17 universities, and European schools are said to be capitalizing on that by enticing professors across the pond to teach, Sophia reports.
- The Corporation for Public Broadcasting announced it would close following Congress’ revocation of federal funding. Now PBS North Carolina is announcing a voluntary separation program for its employees, Renee Umsted reports.
That’s it for now. Be kind to each other. And check back tomorrow for the Under the Dome podcast newsletter.
And if you have any feedback or tips for this new edition of the newsletter feel free to reach out to me directly at dbattaglia@mcclatchydc.com.
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This story was originally published August 11, 2025 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Foreseeing an election struggle, Republicans take a page from NC’s playbook."
