Politics & Government

Can the GOP reclaim the U.S. Senate? Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell sees ‘great’ odds

U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell says private Republican polls reveal nearly the same picture that public polls do: The 2024 presidential race is tied in each of the seven battleground states.

“Everything that we find is a reflection of exactly what the independent polls are. I think we’ve got really tight races everywhere, and when I say everywhere I’m talking about only seven states,” McConnell said following a Wednesday ribbon cutting with the Paris-Bourbon County Economic Development Authority.

He’s referring to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.

The outgoing GOP leader is privy to a heap of polling conducted by the Senate Leadership Fund, the McConnell-aligned super PAC that has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Republican candidates for Senate.

Republicans need to flip two Senate seats to recapture control in January 2025 and McConnell said he felt “great” about their chances in Ohio, Montana, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. With the West Virginia seat nearly in the bag, he felt their second best opportunity was in Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is facing an uphill challenge in a state Donald Trump will easily carry.

McConnell also declined to say who he would support to succeed him when the GOP holds its leadership vote following the Nov. 5 election.

“I’m not taking a position. I think both [John] Cornyn and [John] Thune are terrific,” McConnell said. “I’m sure whichever one wins will do an outstanding job.

Barr on battle for the house

Rep. Andy Barr, who does not have a competitive race this year, said control of the U.S. House will be determined in about two dozen campaigns across the country.

“Some are on our own turf, some are on the Democrat turf. In some respects, the prospects for Republicans in the House are connected to the presidential race, but not entirely, because we have battle-tested incumbents in Biden-Harris districts that know how to outperform the top of the ticket,” Barr said, appearing alongside McConnell.

Republicans currently enjoy just a four-seat margin in the House, and Barr said he believed that economic angst in the country would help tip races toward the GOP.

“Two-thirds of the American people consistently in all of the polls say that the country is moving in the wrong direction, so that, I think, will help both Republicans at the top of the ticket and in the race for keeping the House and growing our majority,” Barr said.

This story was originally published October 31, 2024 at 10:45 AM.

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David Catanese
McClatchy DC
David Catanese is a national political correspondent for McClatchy in Washington. He’s covered campaigns for more than a decade, previously working at U.S. News & World Report and Politico. Prior to that he was a television reporter for NBC affiliates in Missouri and North Dakota. You can send tips, smart takes and critiques to dcatanese@mcclatchydc.com.
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