Can Ron DeSantis win Iowa? US Rep. Thomas Massie lowers expectations
Ron DeSantis projects confidence on the campaign stump that he’ll win the Iowa caucuses next month.
But one of his top surrogates is pouring doubts on that proclamation, attempting to reframe expectations on what a good night for the Florida governor can look like in the contest that kicks off 2024 presidential voting in just over three weeks.
“I don’t think they expect to win Iowa – and certainly not New Hampshire,” said Rep. Thomas Massie, the Republican congressman representing Northern Kentucky who endorsed DeSantis in April.
“But you can shake things out without winning. You’ve just got to over-perform and show people that their assumptions were wrong.”
Massie, who made the 700-mile drive to campaign for DeSantis in Iowa last weekend, said the governor needs to exceed expectations by holding Donald Trump to under 50% of the vote and outpace Nikki Haley, who he’s been increasingly sparring with as her poll numbers have ticked up.
“Ron DeSantis does 5 or 10 points better than the polling, Trump’s under 50% and there’s no close second to Ron DeSantis,” Massie said in an interview, outlining an optimal outcome for DeSantis.
“I feel like he can be in the 30s. That’s what he’s got to do, by the way…He’s got to reestablish that it’s a 2-person race.”
The most recent poll of Iowa, taken last week by CBS News, showed Trump towering over DeSantis with a 36-point lead. Trump held 58% of the vote, compared to DeSantis’ 22%. Haley was in third at 13%.
Just as recently as Monday, DeSantis declared, “We’re going to win Iowa,” but acknowledged that even a caucus victory doesn’t guarantee the GOP nomination.
“This is a long haul…and we’re going to be fighting all over the country over these next many months,” he said.
A DeSantis campaign spokesman did not respond to a request for a reaction to Massie’s assessment.
But Massie knows from experience that an underwhelming Iowa result can quickly deflate a campaign.
The Kentuckian stumped in Iowa for Kentucky colleague Rand Paul’s 2016 presidential endeavor. In the final weeks, as Paul fell into single polling digits and shed media interest, the writing was on the wall. Paul finished in fifth place with 4.5%.
He ended his presidential bid two days after the caucuses.
“If you under-perform greatly in Iowa, what happens is your money disappears,” Massie said.
While a second-place Iowa finish will be important to DeSantis, he faces more treacherous turf in New Hampshire, which holds the first primary eight days after Iowa.
There, DeSantis is trailing both Trump and Haley, who has invested more resources in courting the Granite State’s healthy batch of independents. The former president still leads both rivals in New Hampshire by double digits.
Massie suggested a strong DeSantis performance in Iowa could bolster him in New Hampshire, causing Haley to potentially under-perform and possibly shaving the contest down to a 2-person race with Trump.
Massie, who lived in New Hampshire for seven years after attending college in Massachusetts, said he plans on campaigning there for DeSantis in the coming weeks.
“I probably could have more impact in New Hampshire than Iowa,” he said.
But DeSantis still has to hold off Haley in Iowa, where operatives observe the two have spent more time attacking each other than making an argument against Trump.
“It appears to me that it’s going to be an old-fashioned Texas Death Match here,” said Eric Woolson, an Iowa Republican consultant, characterizing the escalating DeSantis-Haley feud.
“They are both beating up the other one, and I’m sure that delights the front-runner. Because even the winner of the Texas Death Match is usually badly beaten up and not able to fight the next fight any time soon.”
