How many GOP senators would have to break with Trump to convict him? Here’s what we know
After the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Donald Trump last week for “incitement of insurrection” for his role in the Capitol siege, Republican senators are now faced with the choice of whether to break with Trump in the impeachment trial.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat representing California in the House, is expected to send the article of impeachment later this week to the Senate, ABC News reported. The move would jumpstart formal proceedings for a trial in the Senate the next day.
No president has ever been convicted in the Senate and doing so would require a two-thirds majority vote. If all Democratic senators vote yes, 17 Senate Republicans are still needed to convict Trump, which could allow the Senate to bar him from running for president or seeking federal office again.
Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah was the only Republican senator who voted to remove Trump from office when he was impeached in 2019 on accusations of leveraging U.S. aid to pressure Ukrainian officials to investigate President-elect Joe Biden. Trump was acquitted in 2020.
Before the Capitol attack, Trump spoke outside the White House at what he billed a “Save America Rally,” where he continued his false claims that the election was stolen from him and encouraged his supporters to march to the Capitol.
“All of us here today do not want to see our election victory stolen by bold and radical left Democrats, which is what they are doing, and stolen by the fake news media,” Trump said during that rally.
Sen. Joe Manchin, a Democrat representing West Virginia, called the impeachment plan “ill-advised,” signaling that his vote for conviction could be less certain than other Democrats.
“I think this is so ill-advised for Joe Biden to be coming in, trying to heal the country, trying to be the president of all the people when we are going to be so divided and fighting again. Let the judicial system do its job,” Manchin said, adding that he didn’t think Democrats had enough votes in the Senate for a conviction, according to The Hill.
“We’ve been trying to send that message over. They know the votes aren’t there,” Manchin said.
Here are the Republican senators who could break with Trump and vote to convict.
GOP senators who could vote to convict
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky reportedly told associates last week that he thinks Trump “committed impeachable offenses” and is “pleased” with the impeachment plan, according to The New York Times.
McConnell told the AP he’s “undecided” on how he will vote during the trial.
On Tuesday, McConnell placed blame on Trump for the Capitol riot, saying it was “provoked by the president.”
“The last time the Senate convened, we had just reclaimed the Capitol from violent criminals who tried to stop Congress from doing our duty. The mob was fed lies. They were provoked by the president and other powerful people,” McConnell said on the Senate floor.
The Kentucky Republican’s comments stand in stark contrast to his reaction to Trump’s first impeachment, when McConnell said “there’s no chance” Trump would be convicted and removed by the Senate.
McConnell’s decision could sway how other Senate Republicans will vote. A Republican aide told NBC News that if McConnell supports convicting Trump, “then the votes will be there to convict the president.”
Romney, who is considered by some the GOP senator most likely to vote for conviction, condemned Trump for his role in the Capitol riots. Romney hasn’t commented publicly on how he will vote in the trial.
“What happened today was an insurrection incited by the president of the United States. Those who continue to support his dangerous gambit by objecting to the results of a legitimate, democratic election will forever be seen as being complicit in an unprecedented attack against our democracy,” Romney said after the Capitol siege.
Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who was the first GOP senator to call for Trump’s resignation after the Capitol attack, said the House acted “appropriately” in voting to impeach Trump.
Murkowski didn’t reveal how she will vote but said that she “will listen carefully and consider the arguments of both sides.”
Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania also called on Trump to resign, saying the president “committed impeachable offenses” but adding he was unsure about impeachment proceedings.
“I don’t know whether logistically it’s actually really even possible or practical and I’m not sure it’s desirable to attempt to force him out, what a day or two or three prior to the day on which he’s going to be finished anyway,” Toomey said. “So I’m not clear that’s the best path forward.”
After the House impeached Trump — with ten Republicans joining all Democrats — Toomey released a statement saying he would “consider arguments from both the House managers and President Trump’s lawyers.”
Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse told CBS that he would consider any articles of impeachment against Trump and blamed him for inciting the riots at the Capitol, calling it “unquestionable” and the president’s actions “wicked.”
“Donald Trump has acted shamefully. He has been in flagrant dereliction of his duty. And he will be remembered for having inciting this and having drawn more division into an already divided people,” Sasse said.
At least 21 Republican senators, however, have said or indicated that they will not vote to convict Trump, Newsweek reported.
They include: Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Josh Hawley of Missouri, Tim Scott of South Carolina, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Kevin Cramer of North Dakota.
“There’s a lot of people upset. But the legal standard for inciting insurrection is going to be pretty hard to prove because his words matter,” Cramer told Politico. “And his words were reckless and his words certainly had an impact on how fired up people were. But his words were also carefully selected. If you’re going to take him at his word, his words were ‘protest peacefully and patriotically.’ I just think it’s a pretty hard standard to prove.”