House vote failure dooms future Republican action on immigration | McClatchy Washington Bureau

The House's failure to pass any immigration reform plan effectively ends the prospect of further congressional action on the issue for the rest of this year.

And it once again raises the question of whether the GOP can deliver on its big campaign promises, as the House and Senate majority faces a significant threat in November's elections.

Wednesday's 301 to 121 vote against a compromise bill was a strong signal that crafting something that can win over a fractured coalition is all but impossible in this Congress.

The latest setback came a week after the House defeated, 231 to 193, a more conservative immigration measure nicknamed the Goodlatte bill, after sponsor Rep. Bob Goodlatte, R-Virginia.

"You can see that we're frustrated," said Rep. David Valadao, R-California, one of the Republicans pushing immigration reform, after the bill failed.

Not only do the votes doom one of the GOP's signature promises, but they add a fresh chapter to what's become a shaky saga for Republicans' argument they can govern. Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to win control of the House and two to run the Senate.

The Republican Party has had control of the White House and both houses of Congress for the past 18 months. Last year, it couldn't garner the votes it needed for another key 2016 campaign promise — repealing and replacing Obamacare. It did pass a tax cut package in December, but this year's big initiative, immigration reform, has proven elusive.

A CBS News poll taken in March found two-thirds of Americans were dissatisfied with what congressional Republicans had accomplished in the past year.

Rep. Mark Walker, R-N.C., who chairs the conservative House Republican Study Committee, told McClatchy last week he was "concerned" immigration reform was likely dead in the House for at least the rest of the year.

"There's a reason no one has been able to get this done in 30 years — it's very difficult," Walker told McClatchy Thursday.

"(The Speaker of the House) is the toughest position in all of Congress, he has to lasso opinions, for lack of a better expression, that run from Will Hurd to Andy Biggs," Walker said, referring to more moderate and very conservative GOP members of Congress. "Not that that's deflating to either side, but that is very difficult, and has been a part of these meetings."

However, immediately after the vote, Walker offered a more optimistic look, saying he thought future immigration reform was possible in the near future. He did not offer a likely path forward for immigration.

Both of the failed bills would have limited legal immigration, approved billions more for border security, including President Donald Trump's U.S.-Mexico border wall, and allowed families who crossed the border to be detained together.

But the compromise bill also included a path to citizenship for Dreamers, people who came to the country illegally as children, and that was poison to many conservatives.

The fate of the bills became a new reminder that the Republican party remains badly divided over immigration. In the days leading up to the vote, Republicans considered adding a provision that would have mandated employers check the legal status of all employees, but those pushing reform axed it Tuesday night.

Conservatives said they did not want Dreamers to be able to sponsor legal status for their parents, while reformers said they wouldn't tolerate treating Dreamers like "second-class citizens."

Republicans who pushed for immigration reform, including Reps. Jeff Denham, R-California, Carlos Curbelo, R-Florida, Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Florida, and Valadao, said an answer on the path forward was more obvious: They needed to work with Democrats.

"Today made it very obvious that we need to have a bipartisan solution," Denham said after the vote. "That there are a number of Republicans who will never get to yes, and there are some Democrats who are willing to work with us to find a real solution."

Asked how this would be accomplished, they wavered. Denham, who pushed an effort known as a discharge petition in early May to force a vote on immigration without leadership approval, told McClatchy that using the discharge petition again wouldn't make sense.

Denham said the timing would be difficult, given quirks in the rules that would mandate he had the needed signatures before mid-month in July. The House is out of session next week, meaning members return to their districts during that time, which makes whipping support for a controversial effort much more difficult.

The first petition, which needed 218 signatures to actually force the vote, received 216 signatures before the effort ended. Signing were every House Democrat and 23 Republicans.

Republican leadership agreed to broker a deal on immigration between the leaders of the discharge petition and the conservative House Freedom Caucus in order to keep more members from signing on to the petition. GOP leaders preferred a solution that would not involve Democrats and had a significantly better chance of being signed into law by Trump.

Since the results of those talks led to a failure to pass either bill, leadership is unlikely to engage on further immigration deliberations other than trying to ease the family separation issue.

While both staunch conservatives and Republican reformers say they see a path forward for their immigration priorities, both are unlikely for different reasons.

On one side, Rep. Mark Meadows, R-North Carolina, Freedom Caucus chairman, told McClatchy there is room in a bill that addresses family separation to also approve more funding for border security and other conservative measures.

"You start with the common denominator and add to it," Meadows said. "I don't see (immigration debate) ending completely."

But reformers, who have started openly expressing frustration with the Freedom Caucus and their negotiating tactics, could easily band with Democrats to kill such a bill. House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wisconsin, has said the House is likely to consider a narrow bill on family separation, also the hope of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky.