GOP is scrambling to identify headliners who might boost enthusiasm on the 2018 trail | McClatchy Washington Bureau

Republicans don’t just suffer an enthusiasm gap this year. They also have the weighty problem of finding a headliner who can close it.

Sen. John McCain, once one of the GOP’s most prolific surrogates and a hero to moderate Republicans, is ill. House Speaker Paul Ryan is on his way out of Congress. And the laundry list of Republican presidential hopefuls who hit the congressional campaign trail in 2014 don’t have the same cache after their bruising losses to President Donald Trump last cycle.

Republicans are already facing a spate of congressional retirements, an energized progressive base, a polarizing president from their own party and mounting frustrations from moderate suburbanites who are historically a core GOP constituency. A lack of surrogates who can convince those Republicans to stay in the fold — and turn out in November — adds another potentially deadly challenge to the GOP landscape this year.

“You may have stumbled on a major problem we have not addressed,” said one Republican operative involved in midterms, struggling to name any surrogates who might perform well in moderate suburban districts. “It’s not obvious, is it? It’s not obvious.”

There is, of course, Trump himself. He and members of his administration can energize the base, but they turn off the middle, creating a difficult balancing act for campaigns that want the Trump imprimatur to juice conservatives but are wary of alienating moderates in the process. And in the 25 Republican-held districts where Hillary Clinton outperformed Trump — and perhaps in others that he narrowly won — Trump could be a liability.

As general-election season gets underway this summer, here’s McClatchy’s guide to Republican House and Senate campaign calculations on their potential surrogate lineup — a snapshot of who’s welcome, and who’s not, according to interviews with a dozen GOP strategists and activists involved in 2018 races.

President Donald Trump

Where he’s welcome: In most of the major Senate battlefields, as Republicans seek to knock off Democratic incumbents in red states from Montana to Missouri to West Virginia, and in many conservative-leaning House districts where candidates need to fuel the Trump-loving GOP base, which is miffed at the pace of conservative accomplishments in Congress.

Trump’s children and other administration officials are welcome in these areas too.

“The key to Republicans winning in 2018 is motivating as many of the 63 million people who voted for Trump to come out in the midterms [as possible],” said GOP pollster John McLaughlin, who was involved in Trump’s campaign.

Where he’s not: In places where his approval rating is underwater — including some of the most competitive suburban House districts in the country.

“If you’re running against a Democratic Senate incumbent, you want anybody connected to the Trump administration, or the president himself, anytime you can get him,” said a Republican strategist working on the midterms who like many operatives interviewed requested anonymity in order to speak freely about campaign strategy. “…If a House challenger, House incumbent is running in a district where it’s heavily suburban, old-style Republican voters, Chamber [of Commerce] voters, an administration visit — you still want it here and there, it just doesn’t have the impact. You want surrogates that exude competence. You want local figures as much as you possibly can, and not just local politicos — you want local community heroes.”

Those comments come at a time when Republican candidates running in more moderate districts are going to great lengths to localize their races, in order to separate from the Trump-stamped national brand.

Vice President Mike Pence

Where he’s welcome: In the same conservative territory that Trump can traverse, plus more moderate areas where Trump himself might be toxic. (The same would apply to United Nations Amb. Nikki Haley, a dream surrogate for several operatives interviewed, though her office said she wasn’t permitted to engage in such activity in her current position.)

Asked to name the most in-demand surrogate of the 2018 cycle, a number of sources immediately pointed to the vice president.

“Mike Pence, obviously,” said GOP pollster Whit Ayres. “In most districts Donald Trump is overwhelmingly popular. He represents Donald Trump and he’s agreeable and will stay on message.”

Added strategist and pollster Glen Bolger in an email: “There is no one else on the GOP side with his star power who will do campaign work (the President will have a modest schedule, so he does not count — same was true for Obama). With Paul Ryan not seeking re-election, his star has dimmed a bit.”

Jeremy Adler, Ryan’s political spokesman, replied: “Member requests for Speaker Ryan have only picked up since his announcement and he’s still very in-demand to travel to his colleagues’ districts and tout the far-reaching benefits of tax reform. He’s going to be active on the campaign trail this fall and play a key role in helping Republicans keep the House majority.”

Where he’s not: Pence has a milder temperament than Trump does — but he still robustly represents the president, and that will be problematic in some places where Trump is unpopular and Republican members are struggling to hang on in the face of motivated Democrats and disillusioned independents.

“He’s a likable guy, he’d be able to promote the thriving economy under the current administration and he could also do things that need to get done, like be a credible source talking about obstruction in the Senate on the Democrat side,” said a Republican strategist working on Senate races. “The negative on Pence is you get into the bad side of the administration. Trump’s approval rating is upside down, there’s a lot of dislike for the president. How much of that baggage does he take with him? ... That’s something individual campaigns are going to have to check into,” a process likely to intensify this summer.

Bushworld veterans

Where they’re welcome: Strategists working in more moderate districts often cited alums of the George W. Bush administration — from former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to the ex-president himself — when asked to name their ideal surrogate this cycle, both for campaign trail appearances and for fundraising.

Rice “transcends the political discourse of the time right now,” said GOP strategist Jason Cabel Roe, who is based in California — home to several Republican-held congressional districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. “She’s obviously very well-respected as the nation’s top diplomat … from my own polling, I know she has a lot of crossover appeal.”

Added the Republican strategist working on midterm races, speaking of George W. Bush: “He’s liked by independents, he’s acceptable to Democrats—they point to him and say, ‘man, remember when he was in charge? It was better than what we’ve got now.’ Bush or easily recognizable figures from the George W. Bush era would be really good gets this cycle, especially in more moderate districts, but anybody would be lucky to have him.”

Where they’re not: Bush didn’t vote for Trump, who humiliated his brother, Jeb Bush, on the campaign trail, and many of his advisers became visible leaders of the Never Trump movement. The conservative base that populates many red districts is much more aligned with Trump’s hard-edged populism these days than with Bush’s “compassionate conservative” style, and those voters are often deeply suspicious of anyone who didn’t support Trump in 2016.

The 2016 stars — before Trump

Where they’re welcome: Republican presidential candidates from the last campaign — in particular, Senators Rand Paul, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio — are showing up as prominent surrogates this cycle, doling out endorsements and rallying with candidates across the country.

Paul and Cruz continue to embrace anti-establishment and conservative candidates, while Rubio is also considered a good fit in more suburban areas.

“Rubio, Cruz, Rand Paul — some people who ran in 2016 [are] still seen as up-and-coming leaders of the party and conservative voices,” said Chris Wilson, a Republican operative who directed Cruz’s research, analytics and digital strategy in the presidential race.

They join other lawmakers, including senators such as Tom Cotton and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Ryan and House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, as figures who are expected to be versatile and active on the 2018 trail.

Where they’re not: It’s not that the lawmakers are unwelcome anywhere in particular. But in many conservative districts and red states, no one can match the magnetism of Trump or Pence, as polarizing as they are in many House battleground districts.

“What I find interesting is the usual Republican establishment surrogates don’t do you any good,” said McLaughlin, the pollster, who was speaking broadly — not about any specific surrogate. “They might help you, fundraising-wise. I’m not going to name names, but usually, establishment types aren’t quite what they used to be. There’s a new kind of populism within the country, the Republican Party.”