Say what you will about Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, but one thing is certain: the man was denied a honeymoon. During his first two years atop Latin America’s fifth-largest economy, Maduro seemed to face a lifetime of troubles: widespread social protests, tanking oil prices, rampant crime, and (according to him) dozens of coup and assassination attempts.
On Sunday, Maduro began his third year in power, but his troubles are far from behind him. In fact, the next years could be even more turbulent and decisive for the man who narrowly won a contested election in 2013 to replace his late boss and mentor Hugo Chávez.
The most obvious hurdle will be National Assembly elections this year that will test party discipline and Maduro’s popularity. The results — and how both sides accept victory and defeat — will be a preamble for an even higher-stakes battle starting in 2016, when the opposition will be able to legally call for a referendum to revoke the president.
The backdrop for the struggle is an economy in shambles. Venezuela already has the region’s highest inflation and poorest performing economy, which has generated shortages of basic goods and headline-grabbing food lines. But analysts say the pain might just be getting started, as the full brunt of falling oil prices ripples through the economy.
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