Economy

Economist predicts depression (but he's been wrong before)

Pray that Bill Helming is wrong — again.

And to be honest, he'd be good with that. Nobody wants to live through an economic depression marked by a beaten-down stock market, a jobless rate at 12 percent, widespread debt defaults and a deflationary price spiral that takes the economy down with it.

Yet we're on our way, says Helming, a widely respected agricultural economist who lives in Olathe. His new book, "What Goes Up Eventually Comes Down," lays out the dismal forecast.

"I hope I'm wrong, but I'm trying to be as much of a realist as I can," Helming said in an interview. "The stage is set for some difficult times in urban America. There's nobody that's going to be left out of this."

Helming has had dark visions of tomorrow before. For example, when the stock market crashed in October 1987, Helming feared the worst.

"We're heading for a recession we haven't seen the likes of since the 1930s," he told The Star at the time.

Helming saw summer 1990 as the onset of "the most serious deflationary recession we've had in over 50 years."

He declared outright in November 1992 that the nation's economy had entered a depression. And July 1994 reminded him of "what happened in the early 1930s."

We know now he was wrong. That doesn't keep his or others' dire forecasts from attracting attention during hard times.

A depression remains in the economic forecasts of author Harry Dent Jr., and deflation figures strongly in the views of economist Gary Shilling and technical analyst Robert Prechter.

Gloom and doom never really goes away, as if in good times we want reminders not to overdo it. But predictions of a sharp depression are clearly outside the mainstream of economic forecasts today.

Talk of depression had rattled markets a year ago, for example, when Harvard economist Robert Barro put the odds at 20 percent. Recently, he set them "close to zero" for 2010.

Most economists expect a weak, slow recovery — but a recovery all the same.

Read more of this story at KansasCity.com

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