U.S. retailers are expecting to be ho-ho-happy in the coming holiday season.
The National Retail Federation released its holiday sales forecast on Tuesday, expecting retails sales, excluding autos and gasoline, to increase by 3.6 percent in November and December.
“All of the fundamentals are in a good place, giving strength to consumers and leading us to believe that this will be a very positive holiday season,” Matthew Shay, president of the retailers group, said in a statement accompanying the forecast, adding that “our forecast reflects the very realistic steady momentum of the economy and industry expectations.”
If the federation is correct in its forecast, the 3.6 percent growth rate over the holiday period would be well above the 2.5 percent average over the past 10 years. It would also narrowly surpass the seven-year average since the economic recovery began in 2009 of 3.4 percent.
“We think 3.6 percent is a very solid number. We’re optimistic that this is reflective of the growth in the economy and the expectations across the industry, based on what we’ve experienced so far this year,” Shay said in a conference call with reporters.
The federation expects seasonal employment to grow by 640,000 to 690,000 jobs. That’s in the range of last season’s 675,300 new holiday positions.
What could play the role of Grinch in the forecast for the coming season?
“Increased geopolitical uncertainty, the presidential election outcome and unseasonably warm weather are the main issues at play with the greatest potential to shake consumer confidence and impact shopping patterns,” said Jack Kleinhenz, the group’s chief economist.
The Conference Board, a New York-based firm that offers a closely watched measure of consumer confidence, said in late September that confidence levels are the highest they’ve been since the Great Recession began in 2008. Driving confidence, the group said, is steady job growth nationwide.
“Consumers are just in a much stronger position relative to where they’ve been,” Shay told reporters.
Kevin G. Hall: 202-383-6038, @KevinGHall
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