Will Trump be impeached or removed from office? Here’s what oddsmakers say

President Donald Trump could become the first commander-in-chief to be impeached twice when the U.S. House of Representatives votes Wednesday.

Democrats introduced one article of impeachment Monday against Trump for “incitement of insurrection” following last week’s riot at the U.S. Capitol.

And oddsmakers give Trump a high chance of being impeached following the chaotic events of last week. But the chance of Trump being removed from office is far smaller, betting odds show.

A mob in support of Trump stormed the Capitol Wednesday while Congress was in session, temporarily delaying the certification of President-elect Joe Biden’s Electoral College victory over Trump and forcing the House and Senate to evacuate as Americans watched in shock. At least five people have died in connection to the riot.

Trump, who has repeatedly made unfounded claims of voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, spoke to supporters at a “Save America Rally” on the National Mall just before the riot began.

More than 200 members of Congress have since cosponsored the article of impeachment, and at least five House Republicans have said they will vote to impeach Trump. No House Republicans voted to impeach Trump in 2019.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is also reportedly “pleased” about the impeachment effort, according to The New York Times, which reports the Kentucky Republican blames Trump for his party losing the majority in the U.S. Senate.

McConnell, according to the Times, “is pleased that Democrats are moving to impeach (Trump), believing that it will make it easier to purge him from the party.”

Odds of Trump being impeached

But what do oddsmakers say about Trump’s possible impeachment — and if he could be removed from office?

The odds lean toward a second impeachment of Trump, which would set up a pivotal Senate vote.

It’s all but a certainty Trump will be impeached according to Smarkets, a British betting exchange. Their odds of -10,000 mean a bet of $1 dollar would net a profit of only $0.01 if Trump is impeached, Covers.com reported.

“Trump has spent the last four years successfully navigating his way through a variety of controversies, and with just seven days to go until his term expires many would have thought he was in the clear,” Pete Watt, Covers spokesperson, told McClatchy News. “However, it seems that the betting books – and Nancy Pelosi – think differently and the odds suggest that the race to get impeachment proceedings through the House of Representatives is on.”

US-Bookies.com lists odds of 1/8 that Trump will be impeached, implying a probability of 88.9%.

A simple majority vote of the 435 members of the House is needed to impeach Trump. A small but growing number of House Republicans, including Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, the third-ranking GOP member in the House, have come out in support of impeaching Trump.

“There has never been a greater betrayal by a president of the United States of his office and his oath to the Constitution,” Cheney said in a statement.

Odds of Trump being removed

But if Trump is impeached, will he be removed from office? Oddsmakers do not see that as likely.

SportsBetting.AG’s odds show an implied probability of 75% that Trump will remain president on Jan. 19 — a day before President-elect Biden takes office. The 1/6 odds through Gambling.com represent an 85.69% chance Trump will complete his term.

There is just a 12.5% implied probability Trump will be leaving the White House before his term is over next week, Smarkets’ odds show, according to Covers.

“It is unlikely that more than a handful of Senate Republicans would put their political careers on the line to convict their own president, regardless of how they may feel privately,” said Smarkets political analyst Patrick Flynn.

Removing Trump from office would require a two-thirds majority vote from the Senate.

There are 4/1 odds Trump will be ousted through impeachment, the 25th Amendment or personal resignation, according to Gambling.com.

Vice President Mike Pence wrote in a letter Tuesday he will not invoke the 25th Amendment, which can be issued if the president is deemed “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office” by a majority of his Cabinet.

“The bookies suggest Trump is very likely to become the first U.S. president to be impeached twice, but they don’t have much confidence that he’ll actually be removed from office before the inauguration,” a US-Bookies spokesperson said.

This story was originally published January 13, 2021 at 9:20 AM.