Black Lives Matter protests haven’t caused spike in coronavirus cases, report finds
The fight against COVID-19 and the battle for social equality through Black Lives Matter protests present a stark contrast: one requires distance and isolation, while the other calls for unity in numbers.
The opposition has led many to believe that overall coronavirus cases would soar following the onset of protests, but a new study lays those beliefs to rest — for now.
More than three weeks after the events broke out, researchers did not find the protests reignited COVID-19 case growth. Meanwhile, they found increases in social distancing when stay-at-home orders were lifting and businesses reopening.
However, the researchers say it’s possible COVID-19 cases can increase as potentially-infected protesters return home to their friends and families.
The study was published this month by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
“We conclude that predictions of broad negative public health consequences of Black Lives Matter protests were far too narrowly conceived,” the researchers said in their study. “These results make an important contribution not only to the current discussion around policies for controlling the spread of disease, but also to the understanding of human behavior of the general population during periods of civil unrest.”
The team used anonymous cell phone tracking data of nearly 45 million devices in 315 U.S. cities with a population of at least 100,000 to track how many people were and were not social distancing, according to the study.
They tracked protests through internet searches, news articles, reports from police departments and communications from local government authorities, and studied coronavirus cases using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.
The researchers collected data from May 25 — the day George Floyd, an unarmed Black man, was killed by Minneapolis police and sparked protests across the country — to June 20, the study said.
“We find no evidence that net COVID-19 case growth differentially rose following the onset of Black Lives Matter protests, and even modest evidence of a small longer-run case growth decline,” the researchers said.
Contrary to popular belief, violent, long-lasting, or large protests did not play a role in COVID-19 case growth, according to the study.
Such large gatherings make it difficult to avoid human contact and involve loud shouting that can offer perfect opportunities for coronavirus spread, the researchers said.
As well, crowd dispersal tactics used by police such as pepper spray and tear gas can cause people to cough, “which increases the likelihood that an infected individual will spread disease,” according to the study.
Another reason COVID-19 cases may not have surged weeks after protests is that some participants did wear masks and attempt to maintain distance from each other, the researchers said, but the most likely explanation is the increase in social distancing by non-protesters.
The overall population in cities that held large protests did more social distancing than those that did not, such as Hialeah, Florida, and Irving, Texas, the study said.
The researchers say non-protesters likely stayed home “due to fear of violence from police clashes or general unrest” and a fear of contracting the coronavirus.
The catch
One concern the researchers have is that the post-protest period might not be “sufficiently long enough as of yet to detect a resurgence or increase in the infection rates.”
Similar case studies of spring breakers returning home showed that a two week follow-up revealed COVID-19 spread among communities; “hence, if there are any meaningful changes in COVID-19 cases as a result of the mass protests, our post-protest window is long enough to be able to capture them,” the researchers said.
According to the CDC, people can start showing symptoms anywhere between two to 14 days after exposure to the virus.
The majority of protesters were also younger individuals who may not have sought tests due to less severe symptoms, cases that won’t “show up in the official COVID-19 numbers,” the study said.
This story was originally published June 24, 2020 at 1:11 PM with the headline "Black Lives Matter protests haven’t caused spike in coronavirus cases, report finds."
