Model: Georgia’s daily coronavirus deaths could double by summer as state reopens
All eyes are on Georgia as the state proceeds with plans to reopen amid the pandemic.
Many fear it’s too soon, however, and a new model predicting the state could see its daily coronavirus cases double by late summer seemingly confirms those concerns.
Youyang Gu, the independent data scientist behind the model, told CNN his analysis is based on a classic epidemiological methodology known as SEIS, or “susceptible, exposed, infectious, susceptible modeling.” While other southern states have begun reopening as well, Gu’s predictions for the Peach State are the only that assume social distancing will have eased by May 1.
The COVID-19 crisis “might be more serious than what people have been thinking,” Gu warned, according to CNN. “I want to make sure that people understand the facts and the science.”
As of Wednesday, the U.S. had more than one million confirmed coronavirus cases with about 58,500 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. In Georgia, the state’s department of public health reported more than 25,000 cases of the virus that has caused nearly 5,000 people to be hospitalized and another 1,122 admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).
The virus, which can cause severe respiratory illness, has been linked to more than 1,000 deaths across the state, data shows.
According to Gu’s model, which is updated daily, Georgia could see close to 4,500 COVID-19 deaths by late summer should it continue easing social distancing guidelines put in place to quell the highly contagious virus. The data currently estimates 33 daily coronavirus deaths as of April 29. That number could double by Aug. 4, jumping to 66 deaths per day, the model shows.
The projected spike in deaths, Gu said, is reflective of Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s plan to reopen the state’s economy. On April 24, Kemp gave gyms, barbershops, nail salons and other nonessential businesses the green light to open their doors to customers, but under strict limitations.
Restaurants and movie theaters were allowed to reopen Monday under similar restrictions.
“We can’t continue this way economically,” Kemp said of previous stay-at-home orders that shuttered businesses across the state. “We are looking at depression-like unemployment. I simply gave people the opportunity to reopen who literally were on the verge of losing everything they’ve got. These are tough decisions. It wasn’t a mandate. They don’t have to do it but they have the opportunity.”
Coronavirus cases in Georgia are expected to jump again around June and July, according to Gu’s forecast model. While they are only predictions, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology researcher warned the uptick could be a direct result of the governor’s decision to lift the statewide lockdown.
“There is that huge uncertainty that what will happen is very prone to be affected by policy decisions,” Gu told CNN. “If Georgia, for example, orders everyone to wear masks, that may significantly reduce infections, according to some recent studies.”
“Small things —‚ small policy changes — can make a huge impact,” he added.
Gu’s model is one of seven highlighted on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s website, along with the Institute for Heath Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecast frequently cited by the White House coronavirus task force.
The daily model makes COVID-19 projections for all 50 states and 40 countries across the globe.
This story was originally published April 29, 2020 at 12:32 PM with the headline "Model: Georgia’s daily coronavirus deaths could double by summer as state reopens."