Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's trip to Mexico last week drew a lot of media attention to the bloody U.S.-backed war on the drug cartels along the border. But Mexico is facing five other wars that nobody is talking about, and that may pose even bigger threats than the drug lords.
I'm not minimizing Mexico's war against the drug cartels. Drug-related violence has already left more than 17,000 dead over the past four years in Mexico.
But I wouldn't be surprised if closer U.S.-Mexico security ties, likely to be announced during Mexican President Felipe Calderón's visit to the White House on May 19, will eventually drive the drug lords underground, or to move to the next country. It happened in Colombia, and it may happen in Mexico.
Instead, a paper written by former U.S. Department of Defense Latin America chief Roger Pardo Maurer, whose first draft was published by The Small Wars Journal, leads me to wonder about the other five critical challenges that Mexico is facing, unbeknown to much of the rest of the world.
Intrigued, I called Pardo Maurer this week and asked him if he is afraid, like some of his most alarmist colleagues, that Mexico might become an ungovernable place, or a "failed state."
"Mexico is very unlikely to be a failed state because of narco terrorists," he told me. "It is far more likely to become a failed state because of these other issues, and I fear that we will miss sight of them if we reduce our agenda with Mexico to narco-trafficking."
My opinion: Judging from what happened in Colombia, the tighter U.S.-Mexico security relations will be able to squash the drug cartels militarily, or drive them to other countries. But it won't do much to reduce narcotics trafficking while U.S. drug consumption remain at the current levels, and it will certainly not do a thing to help solve the other five wars that Mexico is facing.
The United States has been very lucky to have neighbors as peaceful as Canada and Mexico. Russia, China and many European countries would have loved to be that lucky.
If President Barack Obama wants to keep it that way, he should launch the Community of the Americas he promised during the campaign -- a trade, energy, security, infrastructure and education alliance that would allow all countries in the region, including the United States, to compete more effectively in the global economy. And the place to start would be Mexico.
ABOUT THE WRITER
Andres Oppenheimer is a Miami Herald syndicated columnist and a member of The Miami Herald team that won the 1987 Pulitzer Prize. He also won the 1999 Maria Moors Cabot Award, the 2001 King of Spain prize, and the 2005 Emmy Suncoast award. He is the author of Castro's Final Hour; Bordering on Chaos, on Mexico's crisis; Cronicas de heroes y bandidos, Ojos vendados, Cuentos Chinos and most recently of Saving the Americas. E-mail Andres at aoppenheimer @ herald.com Live chat with Oppenheimer every Thursday at 1 p.m. at The Miami Herald.