January 15, 2012 2:58 PM

Predicting the South Carolina GOP vote is a challenge

As the campaign for South Carolina's first-in-the-South Republican presidential primary enters its final week, many GOP activists and analysts in the state warn against portraying it as an ultraconservative bastion dominated by single-minded evangelicals. While true in some aspects, they say, such a simplistic depiction ignores a shifting swirl of demographic, religious and historical currents that belie pat predictions about the outcome of Saturday's voting.

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