By Kevin G. Hall | McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON — A government report Wednesday showed inflation overall remains tame, but experts believe that the high prices for food and gasoline will continue to strain Americans and the economy.

Consumer prices rose only 0.2 percent in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. But that mild number masked an ugly reality for poorer Americans: Food prices rose almost 1 percent for the month, the highest monthly jump since 1990, and by 5 percent over the previous year.

"This is not a one-month aberration that's hit here. It's something that has been a recent trend," said Patrick Jackman, a BLS economist who works on the consumer price index.

Wednesday's inflation report spurred debate for another reason: It showed gasoline prices falling 2 percent in April, a figure most motorists would sharply dispute.

"The drop makes absolutely no sense," said Mark Vitner, a senior economist with Charlotte, N.C.-based Wachovia, in a note to investors that questioned where BLS data collectors buy their gas.

BLS economists warned in the report that the number reflects a statistical adjustment, called seasonal adjustment; actually, gasoline prices rose about 5.6 percent in April over the prior month.

The AAA Motor Club said that the national average for a gallon of unleaded gasoline stood at $3.75 on Wednesday, up 38 cents from a month ago and up 67 cents from one year ago. On April 1, the national average for unleaded gasoline was $3.29; on April 30 it was 33 cents higher, at $3.62.

Just weeks ago, the Energy Information Administration had projected a 2008 peak gasoline price of $3.60 in June, but that was surpassed by the end of April. In a weekly report Wednesday, the agency said that this "was the seventh consecutive week where the price rose, with the cumulative increase totaling 46.3 cents."

What AAA's numbers suggest is that gasoline prices might soon move higher.

"There's a chance we could see $3.80 a gallon, but we really have to wait to see what happens," said AAA spokesman Troy Green. He expects more clarity after Memorial Day weekend, the start of peak driving season. "We really want to see what demand figures are going to look like and what the inventories are going to look like as well."

The good news in Wednesday's report was that core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by only 0.1 percent. That suggests that the spike in fuel and food costs isn't yet forcing workers and companies to demand higher wages and prices across the board to offset those rising costs. That leaves the Federal Reserve some breathing room should it conclude in June that it must cut interest rates an eighth consecutive time to keep sparking the sluggish economy.

But prices continue to rise at the grocery store, by 1.5 percent in April and 5.9 percent since April 2007. Food prices rose 0.9 percent in April and 5 percent since April 2007.

In this broad food category, the price of eggs has risen 30.5 percent since April 2007; fresh whole milk rose 15 percent; cheese 12 percent; flour 18.3 percent; bread other than white 15.3 percent; margarine 14.9 percent; bananas 20.3 percent; and food away from home (restaurants) a more modest 4.1 percent.

In Wednesday's report, the decline in housing costs helped keep core inflation under control. But the Wachovia analysis pointed to other important costs that are moderating, such as the slowing of price increases for medical services and prescription drugs.

"The tapering of core inflation likely reflects reduced business pricing power as the economy has weakened," wrote Peter Kretzmer, an economist in New York with Bank of America. Three consecutive months of tame core inflation data suggests that "persistent commodity price increases still have had limited impact on general pricing behavior," he said.

But Kenneth Beauchemin, an economist for forecaster Global Insight in Lexington, Mass., thinks April may reflect the calm before the storm. He expects core inflation to tick up because oil prices are above $125 a barrel. The rising prices for oil, gasoline and diesel fuel feed into farm and manufacturing costs.

"The remarkable consistency of the `across the board' increases in food prices emanates from a number of sources, including the soaring energy prices," he said in a research note. "To what extent, and when, the energy price onslaught embeds itself into core consumer prices is an open question."

ON THE WEB

Read the abbreviated BLS report.

Read the complete report and tables.