Gallup: Political climate "relatively auspicious" for GOP

McClatchy Washington BureauJanuary 29, 2014 

America may be leaning more Republican.

Gallup's 2013 polling found 17 Democratic states, compared to 14 Republican states, but that's down from the Democrats' seven state advantage the previous year.

The trend, Gallup said, "reflects a gradual shrinking of the Democrats' dominance since 2008, the year Barack Obama first won the presidency.''

Perhaps more ominous: The three state lead is far below the 12 state advantage in 2010, when Democrats lost control of both Houses.

In that same vein, Democrats will be disadvantaged in protecting this year's Senate majority, as they will be attempting to protect seats in three solidly Republican states (South Dakota, Montana, and Alaska), as well as in a host of truly competitive states," Gallup found.

As a result, it said, "the political climate appears relatively auspicious for Republicans. But given potential differences in partisanship between the state adult population and the voting electorate, state partisanship doesn't always match state voting patterns, and doesn't account for the influence of incumbency or specific issues in a given race."

One warning: Political patterns could change this year, particularly if President Barack Obama's approval numbers change.

 

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