Obamacare was supposed to be President Barack Obamas legacy. But its looking like a political millstone.
The mammoth and unpopular health insurance overhaul weighed down Democrats in 2010 when Republicans helped turn seniors to their side.
And now Democrats have unexpectedly had to play defense over Obamacares Medicare cuts even as Mitt Romney picked Congressman Paul Ryan as a vice-presidential running mate and drew attention to unpopular Republican plans that cap future Medicare spending.
Central to the Republican attack: Obamacare cut $716 billion in anticipated Medicare spending over a decade. Republicans are driving the message home in TV ads and robocalls bashing Democrats.
This could cost us the election, Kelly Ward, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committees political director wrote in a fundraising email last week. We have to get the facts out to voters immediately.
The first Democratic talking point: Ryans Medicare plan signed off on the very Obamacare cuts that Republicans are now bashing.
Obamas campaign defended itself Friday in an ad that said the the non-partisan AARP says Obamacare cracks down on Medicare fraud, waste, and abuse, and strengthens guaranteed benefits.
On Saturday, Ryan kept up the anti-Obamacare pressure in his first presidential-campaign trip to Florida, where he spoke at the Republican-friendly retirement community The Villages, along with his mom, a part-time Lauderdale-by-the-Sea resident.
The Obamacare cuts to Medicare havent yet reduced services and are structured in such a way that theyre not supposed to hit benefits, at least in the short term. Medicare spending is actually forecast to increase in 2012 at a higher annual rate than the average annual increase over the prior five years.
The cuts are targeted at insurance companies and hospitals, not beneficiaries. Whether theyll reduce services in future years is an open question.
Romneys ad, however, makes it sound as if the cuts directly hit current Medicare recipients.
You paid in to Medicare for years every paycheck. Now, when you need it, Obama has cut $716 billion dollars from Medicare, the ad says.
But beyond the $716 billion number, most facts and figures might not matter. Republicans and Democrats say voters will make their decision on whom they trust more, not whose plan has every single detail spelled out. Neither side is willing to admit that Medicare, assuming taxes arent raised, will have to experience actual cuts in future benefits.
Republicans charge Democrats with stealing from Medicare to expand government, namely Medicaid, the expensive health insurance program for the poor that would be capped under Romney and Ryan, whose plan trims about $810 billion from the program over a decade.
Democrats charge Republicans with shredding the social safety net to pay for tax cuts for millionaires. Medicaid, they note, has paid for up to two-thirds of daily nursing home expenses in Florida, where 3.3 million people receive $21.4 billion of the programs benefits.
The battle lines are thus clearly drawn over whos plan is worse for retirees. And the winner of that argument could win the White House.
Its an issue of great importance in Florida, a must-win state for Republicans where nearly 3.4 million annually receive $25.2 billion in Medicare services. More than half the electorate in Florida is 50 or older.
Right now, Romney might be winning the public-relations war in Florida, according to a poll from Rasmussen Reports, which has a reputation for leaning Republican. Asked which plan scares you more, the poll found 54 percent of Florida seniors said Obamacare, while 34 percent said the Ryan plan. Overall, 48 percent were more scared of Obamacare and 41 percent were more worried about Ryans plan, which is the backbone of Romneys proposal.
The Ryan-Romney plan, which has few details compared to Obamacare, would give new recipients a capped subsidy through Medicare to buy private insurance in 2022, and would only impact those who are currently under age 55. That distinction should allay concerns of seniors and those about to retire.
But a poll last year by the Pew Research Center, which sampled more Democrats than Republicans, found that 51 percent of those 50 and older opposed Ryans Medicare changes, while only 29 percent approved.
Obamacare remains unpopular, too. A Miami Herald poll last month showed support for Obamacare was weakest among likely Florida voters older than 65. Overall, 52 percent supported and 43 percent opposed Obamacare; 56 percent felt it would make healthcare worse or have no effect.
A Florida poll released last week from Purple Strategies, a bipartisan consortium of consultants and pollsters, showed Romney remained essentially tied with Obama 48-47 percent in Florida. Voters split evenly 44-45 percent over who would do a better job protecting Medicare.
Many Democrats grouse that, were it not for Obamacare, they wouldnt have faced a senior backlash in 2010 and would have more standing among seniors to attack the Romney-Ryan plan. Democrats hope that Obamacares negatives are old news and that the Romney-Ryan plan will suffer a worse fate in 2012 than Obamacare did two years ago.
Republicans are concerned that their ticket will take a beating over the Ryan plan. Politico reported GOP discontent on Capitol Hill, where House Speaker John Boehner hosted a conference call to settle jittery Republican members.
I dont know if I would have been courageous enough to make that pick. But I admire Mitt Romney for doing it, said Republican consultant Alex Castellanos, with the Purple Poll. He didnt pick Ryan to make a political sale. It was to fix the government. The CEO hired a CFO.
Now, Castellanos said, the challenge is to focus on the economy and move forward. But that gets tougher because Ryan was picked two weeks before the Republican National Convention in Tampa at months end, giving opponents time to negatively define Ryan and his plan without the benefit of the primetime national stage to control the dialogue.
The Purple Strategies poll showed Ryan, who has helped the tickets fundraising explode, is a plus. Hes viewed more favorably than Romney, Obama or Vice President Joe Biden. A Florida poll by Survey USA found Ryan was viewed more favorably than unfavorably by Florida voters, including seniors.
However, though hes seen favorably in Florida right now, Ryans pick hasnt boosted the overall fortunes of Romneys ticket in the state. The Purple Poll showed Obamas ticket picked up 2 percentage points since July. But nationwide, approval shifted 3 points nationwide in Romneys favor in that poll. Overall, according to a New York Times analysis of multiple polls, Ryan has boosted the ticket just 1 point in Romneys favor; the average bump is usually 4 points.
Pollster John Zogby, who used to conduct Florida surveys for the Miami Herald, reported a nationwide poll showing the Romney ticket got a Ryan bump of seven points buoyed largely by a surprising increase of Republican-ticket support among 18-29 year old voters.
Zogby said the numbers are sure to change. And other polls indicated Ryan wasnt much help.
Zogby said the Ryan proposal might prove more unpopular than Obamacare, which contained highly popular provisions giving seniors more prescription drug benefits, covering more people and forcing companies to insure people with pre-existing conditions.
Democrats thought that would be a winner at the polls. It wasnt in 2010.
Republicans framed Obamacare as Medicare-cutting government intrusion that also mandate people buy health insurance -- a proposal ironically based on Romneys Massachusetts health plan. A few falsely said the plan called for death panels.
The irony for Obama is that hes one of the best story tellers that weve seen in the presidency and he happens to be particularly inept in telling the story of Obamacare, Zogby said. Its not that he lost control of the dialogue. He never had it.
Obama played politics with Medicare as well, in 2008, when he bashed rival John McCain in an ad that accused the Republican of wanting to gut the program. The independent website FactCheck.org called the ad false; McCain didnt want to cut benefits just slow the programs growth rate and attack fraud.
Obama adopted those very principles a year later in Obamacare, using McCains defenses about not cutting benefits.
The Obamacare reductions target hospital reimbursement rates, require an independent board to propose cost savings that dont ration care and scale back payments to private insurers in Medicare Advantage that wound up costing taxpayers more for each beneficiary compared to traditional Medicare.
Its unclear how Romneys plan would make Medicare more solvent because he wants to reverse the Obamacare cuts that helped extend the life of the program.
Medicare spending for 2012 is scheduled to weigh in at $586.1 billion, a 7 percent jump thats higher than the five-year annual average increase of 6.2 percent, according to data from the annual report of the trustees overseeing Medicares trust funds.
The board cast a jaundiced eye on how real some of the savings would be because they would take unprecedented improvements in the health system. Also, the boards report suggests that some of the cuts could eventually hurt the availability and quality of health care . over time for Medicare recipients.
That would be a real cut. And right now the measures are considered a savings.
Former Rep. Ron Klein, who lost his Palm Beach County-based congressional seat in 2010 amid the Obamacare debate, said he believed this election would be different with the sole focus on Medicaid. He certainly hoped there wouldnt be a repeat in 2012.
The Republicans did a much better job being on the attack, Klein said. The points of our side got lost in the translation.
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