If presumptive Republican candidate Mitt Romneys first major speech to a Hispanic audience in this campaign was an indication of his strategy to win over Latino voters, he is in big trouble.
During his May 23 speech to the Latino Coalition, a group of Hispanic small businesses owners, Romney didnt mention even once the word immigration, according to his prepared remarks published by The Washington Posts website. Instead, he devoted his entire speech to his plans to revive the U.S. economy and improve U.S. education standards.
After the speech, Democratic strategists noted that Romney who clinched the Republican presidential nomination last Tuesday after winning the Texas primary is trying to sidestep the hard-line immigration stands that he took during the primaries. In his quest for conservative Republican votes, Romney alienated many Hispanics by enthusiastically backing Arizonas draconian immigration law, and by calling for the self-deportation of illegal immigrants. Many Latinos interpret that as making the life of undocumented Hispanic immigrants impossible until they leave the country on their own, which some fear could lead to harassment of all Hispanics regardless of their legal status.
In addition, Romney has opposed the Dream Act, an Obama administration-backed bill that would give a path to large numbers of undocumented college students who were brought to the country as infants by their parents, and who grew up as Americans.
According to a new national NBC/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll of Latino voters, 61 percent of Hispanics plan to vote for Obama in November, while only 27 percent plan to vote for Romney. By comparison, former Republican candidate Sen. John McCain won 31 percent of the Hispanic vote in the 2008 election, and former President George W. Bush won 40 percent in 2004.
Most Romney advisers seem to believe that Romney can win in November by sticking to his anti-immigration rhetoric when speaking to conservative audiences, and focusing on the economy and education when speaking to Latino audiences.
They say that nationwide polls of Hispanic voters, such as the new NBC/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo one, dont mean anything because they are heavily influenced by the huge Hispanic populations in California and New York, which vote Democratic anyway. What matters are the polls in battleground states, such as Florida and Arizona, and Romney is doing well in those states, they say.
Asked whether Romney will ignore the immigration issue, Romney campaign spokesman Alberto Martinez told me that Hispanics do not vote based solely on the issue of immigration. Poll after poll indicates that jobs and the economy will be the most important issue for Hispanic voters come November.
Martinez added, Like all Americans, Hispanics will cast their vote for president based on their perception of who is best suited to turning the economy around and creating jobs, which is why were confident that Governor Romney will attract considerable support.
In addition to focusing on the economy, pro-Romney Super PACS will most likely try to weaken the Latino support for Obama in swing states by running TV ads blasting Obama for deporting record numbers of undocumented Latinos, and for not meeting his campaign promise to pass a comprehensive immigration law. Thus, Republican strategists hope to sway many pro-Obama Hispanics to stay at home on Election Day, Democratic strategists say.
My opinion: If elections were decided by purely rational reasons and could be predicted with cold calculations on what issues matter the most to voters, Romney could indeed win this election. Polls show that Hispanic voters care more about the economy, jobs and education, than about immigration.
But elections are most often decided by emotional factors, and the fact is that Romney has alienated many Hispanics with a dehumanizing rhetoric against illegals that to many of us comes across as Latino-bashing.
Most Latinos dont buy Romneys claim that he is a strong supporter of legal immigration and only opposes illegal immigration, because thats a deceiving argument. Under the current system, its very hard for foreigners to become legal U.S. residents, and Romney has opposed a comprehensive immigration reform that would increase the number of resident visas to match the needs of the U.S. labor market.
Romneys ignore-immigration strategy to win over Hispanics wont work. He will need an urgent image remake to come across as more simpático to Latinos, and he can only do that by softening his harsh stands on immigration issues.
ABOUT THE WRITER
Andres Oppenheimer is a Miami Herald syndicated columnist and a member of The Miami Herald team that won the 1987 Pulitzer Prize. He also won the 1999 Maria Moors Cabot Award, the 2001 King of Spain prize, and the 2005 Emmy Suncoast award. He is the author of Castro's Final Hour; Bordering on Chaos, on Mexico's crisis; Cronicas de heroes y bandidos, Ojos vendados, Cuentos Chinos and most recently of Saving the Americas. E-mail Andres at firstname.lastname@example.org. Live chat with Oppenheimer every Thursday at 1 p.m. at The Miami Herald.