Even with an equal partisan split on the Redistricting Commission that will remap legislative districts for 2012-2020, Democrats have the most to lose.
Some of these districts that are currently Democratic are going to become marginal districts, Boise State political scientist Gary Moncrief said at a workshop at the Statehouse Saturday.
In the 2000s, Idaho grew by about 273,000 people, or 21 percent the fourth-fastest rate in the country. Newcomers flocked to conservative areas, including western Ada County and Canyon County. Almost three-quarters of the growth came in just four of 44 counties: Ada (92,000), Canyon (57,000), Kootenai (30,000) and Bonneville (22,000).
Treasure Valley suburbs populated by newcomers who fled less conservative places like California for communities like Meridian, Kuna, Eagle and Nampa will gain clout. Boise will lose power, as will rural Idaho, where seven counties lost population in the 2010 census.
Idaho Democrats now hold 20 of 105 seats, the second-smallest minority legislative showing in the country, behind Wyomings Democrats. Setting aside candidates and issues, population shifts look to make the GOP majority bigger.
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