Experts theorize about post-Castro Cuba

The Miami HeraldJanuary 21, 2010 

Cuba's Raul Castro may try to "institutionalize the revolution" before he leaves power by strengthening the military and legislature and "revising" the communist ideology, according to one scenario crafted by a Cuba expert at the University of Miami.

"This is the most conservative scenario of all -- continuity and stability," said Andy Gomez, senior fellow at UM's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies.

Gomez wrote the scenario for a U.S. intelligence community review of Cuba's possible future paths. U.S. agencies regularly conduct such exercises and invite academics to take part, he said, declining to identify the agency in charge of the current review.

Gomez said he was asked to focus on the post-Fidel and Raúl Castro scenario, while others were asked to focus on other possibilities, including dramatic changes brought on by social unrest or natural disasters.

"The key is to begin to think past Fidel and Raúl. The dialogue has been stuck on that, and we need to think strategically in terms of what comes next," he said.

Under Gomez's scenario, Castro, who succeeded his ailing brother Fidel in early 2008, would focus on "trying to institutionalize the revolution" before he dies or retires.

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