Poll: McCain has cut into Obama's edge on jobs, economy

McClatchy NewspapersOctober 28, 2008 

WASHINGTON — "Joe the Plumber" may be paying off for John McCain.

The Arizona senator scored sharp gains on the pivotal issue of jobs and the economy in the past week, helping him gain a bit on front-runner Barack Obama and narrow the presidential race as it heads into the final week, according to an Ipsos/McClatchy Poll released Tuesday.

The poll found Obama's margin over McCain on who's stronger on jobs and the economy — by far the top issue in the country — down from 16 points to 7 points in one week.

The Illinois senator's loss of ground on that benchmark question came as McCain hammered him repeatedly as someone who'd give taxpayers' money to the poor and pay for it by raising taxes on small businesses, much like the plumbing business in Ohio that "Joe the Plumber" Wurzelbacher said he wanted to buy someday.

Overall, the poll found:

  • Obama, the Democrat, supported by 48 percent of likely voters.
  • McCain, the Republican, supported by 42 percent.
  • Ralph Nader, an independent, supported by 1 percent.
  • Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate, supported by 1 percent.
  • The remaining 8 percent undecided or supporting other candidates.

Obama's 6-point lead in the Ipsos/McClatchy Poll is down from 8 points the week before. The survey of 831 likely voters, taken Thursday through Monday, has an error margin of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

When matched head to head without other candidates, Obama leads McCain by 5 points, down from 9 the week before.

Several other national polls also find the race tightening slightly, including Gallup and Zogby. Independent pollster John Zogby, for example, found Obama's lead Tuesday narrowing to 5.7 percentage points from as high as 11.9 points last week. Obama leads by an average of 7 points in 10 polls over the last week, according to RealClearPolitics.com.

Obama still leads in the Ipsos/McClatchy Poll among most demographic groups and on most issues. But he's lost ground on several:

  • On jobs and the economy, voters prefer Obama by 50-43 percent. The week before, they preferred him by 54-38.
  • On taxes, they prefer Obama by 48-43 percent, a drop of 3 points in a week.
  • On health care, likely voters trust Obama over McCain by 53-37 percent. That 16-point advantage was down from 24 points the week before.

  • Obama also lost a little standing on family values, the traditionally Republican issue where he has the edge, 47-42 percent. The week before, he led on family values by 48-40 percent.

McCain has the advantage on foreign policy, favored over Obama by a margin of 9 percentage points, and on national security by a margin of 12 points.

The economy and jobs remain the top issue for voters as they search for a president, listed as the top priority by 42 percent of likely voters. The distant second was national security, which 17 percent ranked as the top issue.

All other issues were far behind on the national to-do list.

Obama leads among almost all slices of the electorate, including men, women, all age groups, blacks, Hispanics and other races and ethnicities. He trails among non-Hispanic whites, who favor McCain by 50-39 percent.

METHODOLOGY

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted Thursday through Monday. Ipsos interviewed 831 likely voters. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would've been had the entire adult population in the U.S. been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other subgroups of the survey population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including coverage error and measurement error. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the U.S. population according to Census figures. Interviews were conducted with respondents on land-line and cellular telephones. Respondents had the option to be interviewed in English or Spanish.

MORE FROM MCCLATCHY

McCain, Palin call on Stevens to step down from Senate

Tough times: Congress grew 13 percent richer in 2007

No matter where candidates go in N.C., the economy's the issue

McClatchy Newspapers 2008

McClatchy Washington Bureau is pleased to provide this opportunity to share information, experiences and observations about what's in the news. Some of the comments may be reprinted elsewhere in the site or in the newspaper. We encourage lively, open debate on the issues of the day, and ask that you refrain from profanity, hate speech, personal comments and remarks that are off point. Thank you for taking the time to offer your thoughts.

Commenting FAQs | Terms of Service