Obama's lead widens in latest Ipsos/McClatchy poll

McClatchy NewspapersOctober 21, 2008 

WASHINGTON — Entering the homestretch, Barack Obama leads John McCain by 50 to 42 percent and appears to be gaining strength on key issues despite a barrage of criticism from his rival.

A new Ipsos/McClatchy poll out Tuesday found:

  • Obama, the Democrat, supported by 50 percent of likely voters.
  • McCain, the Republican, supported by 42 percent.
  • Independent candidate Ralph Nader supported by 1 percent.

Libertarian candidate Bob Barr didn't register enough support to count. Another 7 percent of likely voters didn't support any of those candidates or didn't know whom they supported.

The Ipsos/McClatchy poll of 773 likely voters was taken last Thursday through Monday. It has an error margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. "Likely voters" are those who are registered to vote and display some measure of intense engagement in the election.

The first Ipsos-McClatchy poll taken since the third and final debate between the major candidates offered several signs of growing strength for Obama and troubling weaknesses for McCain.

On issues, Obama's gained ground among voters across the board, even on issues where McCain still has an advantage and on some where the Republican usually would expect to be ahead.

On taxes, for example, likely voters now prefer Obama over McCain by a margin of 8 percentage points. This is despite a concerted effort by McCain and running mate Sarah Palin to cast Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal who'd raise taxes on ordinary folks such as Joe the Plumber, an Ohio man whom McCain cited repeatedly in the last debate and since then in ads and on the campaign trail.

On family values, a subject Republicans have used to court Christian conservatives and suburban moderates since the 1980s, likely voters now prefer Obama over McCain by 8 points. That's up from 3 points in mid-September.

Voters also prefer Obama over McCain to handle jobs and the economy by 16 points and health care by 24 points, both wider margins than earlier Ipsos/McClatchy polls found. That reflects the traditional Democratic advantage on those issues and a barrage of Obama ads in battleground states ripping McCain's health-care proposals.

Likely voters still prefer McCain over Obama on the issues of national security and foreign policy. However, McCain's advantage on national security, 12 percentage points, had narrowed sharply from the 23- to 28-point edge he'd had in weekly Ipsos/McClatchy polls since Labor Day.

More troubling for McCain's prospects: Voters don't care as much about the issues on which he's strong.

They rank the economy as their top priority by 3-1 over national security, a distant second. Foreign policy is dead last.

Obama benefits from a significant gender gap, leading among women by 16 points while trailing among men by 1 point. He also leads among voters aged 18-34, those aged 35-54, Hispanics and blacks. The two candidates split older voters.

McCain leads among whites, 51-40 percent.

In another sign of Obama's growing strength, his support is becoming more solid in the final weeks, as McCain continues to show some weakness even among his own supporters.

Among Obama supporters, 92 percent said they'd definitely vote for him and 6 percent more said they'd probably vote for him. Just 2 percent said they still could change their minds.

Among McCain supporters, 81 percent said they'd definitely vote for him and 12 percent said they'd probably vote for him. Seven percent said they could change their minds.

That relative softness among McCain's support helps explain why Obama is spending his final campaign push in once reliably Republican states such as Florida, Virginia and Indiana, looking to win over McCain voters.

METHODOLOGY:

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted last Thursday through Monday. Ipsos interviewed 773 likely voters. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population in the U.S. been polled. Likely voters are defined as individuals who are registered to vote, who voted in the 2004 presidential election, are 7-10 on a 10-point likelihood-to-vote scale and are interested in following news about the campaign "a great deal" or "quite a bit."

Individuals who didn't vote in the 2004 presidential election qualify as likely voters if they're registered to vote, are 8-10 on a 10-point likelihood-to-vote scale and are interested in following news about the campaign "a great deal" or "quite a bit." Those individuals who've already cast their ballots through early voting or absentee ballots automatically qualify as likely voters.

The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other subgroups of the survey population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the U.S. population according to census figures. Interviews were conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. Respondents had the option to be interviewed in English or Spanish.

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McClatchy Newspapers 2008

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