• Posted on Tuesday, January 15, 2008
  • Bookmark and Share
  • email
  • |
  • print
  • |
  • rss

tool name

close
tool goes here

Sluggish retail sales add to recession worries

Sign up for email newsletters now!

Sign up for email newsletters now!

Never miss a McClatchy story

More on this Story

WASHINGTON — New data released Tuesday signaled a downturn in consumer spending, adding to concerns that the economy is heading into a recession, roiling Wall Street and prompting more calls to jump-start the slumping economy.

Retail sales fell four-tenths of a percent in December, according to the Commerce Department. The data were worse than analysts had expected, and came while more worries surfaced as the department revised November retail-sales figures from 1.2 percent to 1 percent.

"Consumers enticed by strong promotional and merchandising strategies in November pulled back in December as economic uncertainty became more prevalent," economist Anika Khan wrote in a note to investors from the Wachovia Economics Group in Charlotte, N.C.

Consumer spending drives about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, so retail sales numbers are important. Some of the declining sales can be explained by December's falling gasoline prices, which have since rebounded.

On their own, Tuesday's numbers hardly indicated doom. But taken with other recent indicators, such as December's weak job growth, the retail sales numbers suggest a sluggish economy at best. Many mainstream economists have increased their odds for recession to 50-50.

Faced with economic uncertainty, Khan said, consumers are spending less on discretionary items such as clothing and shoes to pay for necessities such as food and health care.

On Wednesday, Democrats in Congress will hold their first hearing on the need for stimulus plans to boost the economy.

Recessions are defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, and it's often unclear when the economy is in recession until after the fact. That's why presidential candidates are offering their stimulus plans, and why stocks dive every time new economic data are released that point to a slowing economy.

Stocks fell shortly after the retail sales figures were released Tuesday and stayed down throughout the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 277.04 points to close at 12,501.11, while the NASDAQ closed down 60.71 points to 2417.59. Since the new year began, the Dow is down more than 5 percent; the NASDAQ is off 7 percent.

It wasn't just economic data that hurt the markets Tuesday. The nation's largest bank, Citigroup, announced a fourth-quarter loss of nearly $10 billion and a 41 percent cut in its dividend. Citigroup also said it would offer a $14.5 billion stake in the company to investors in Kuwait and Singapore to replenish its capital. That's on the heels of last year's $7.5 billion stake taken by investors in Abu Dhabi.

There was one bright spot Tuesday. The Labor Department's Producer Price Index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level, fell by a tenth of a percent in December. This was unexpected; many forecasters had projected an increase of two-tenths of a percent.

Falling wholesale inflation clears the path for the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates when its rate-setting committee meets Jan. 29-30. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled last week that he's ready to take aggressive action to spark the economy. Financial markets expect a cut of at least half a percentage point, or 50 basis points, to 3.75 percent. When the Fed lowers its benchmark-lending rate, banks move in tandem to lower the prime rate, charged to their most creditworthy customers.

"It was a rather benign report," said Kenneth Beauchemin, an economist with forecaster Global Insight in Lexington, Mass.

But wholesale inflation measures aren't as accurate as the monthly consumer price index, which will be released Wednesday morning. The wholesale inflation report Tuesday pointed to surprisingly higher food costs, and that could spell trouble if it's mirrored in consumer inflation data for December.

Bernanke has been criticized for not cutting interest rates more quickly to prevent an economic slowdown. But he's reluctant to move too fast while inflation hovers at the upper limits of the Fed's perceived comfort zone of 2 percent. Wholesale core inflation data Tuesday showed an increase of 2 percent over the past year.

Some stock traders are calling for a rate cut of three-quarters of a percentage point, but that would be unusual. Since 2000, the Fed hasn't cut more than a half-point at a time.

ON THE WEB

The Producer Price Index report.

The retail sales report.

McClatchy Newspapers 2008
JOIN THE DISCUSSION

We welcome comments. To post one, you must sign in using either your McClatchyDC login or your login for Facebook, Twitter or Disqus. Just click the appropriate box below.

Please keep your comment civil, short and to the point. Obscene, profane, abusive and off topic comments will be deleted. Repeat offenders will be blocked. If you find a comment abusive or inappropriate, please flag it for the moderator by placing your cursor on the comment, then clicking the "flag" link that appears. Thanks for your participation.

ECONOMY IN TURMOIL

economy in turmoil

Read McClatchy coverage of the economic pain Americans around the country are feeling, from Florida to California to Alaska.

ECONOMY QUESTIONS & ANSWERS

 hall & pugh

McClatchy correspondents Kevin G. Hall (left) and Tony Pugh are available to answer your questions about the economic meltdown at home and abroad, and what's in store for ordinary Americans.

Q&A: THE HOUSING CRISIS

Mark Zandi, the chief economist for Moody's Economy.com, is took questions from McClatchy readers about the nation's deep housing crisis. His book, "Financial Shock," offers a 360-degree look at what caused the crisis, what mistakes were made and who made them. It offers a way forward to prevent future crises.

Q&A: TERMINAL CHAOS

U.S. air travel these days is about as fun as a trip to the dentist. Departure delays are rampant, bags often miss the flight you've caught and rising jet fuel prices have major airlines charging to check a bag. In his new book "Terminal Chaos," George Donohue, a professor and former high-level Federal Aviation Administration official, explains why our system of air travel is broken and what can be done to fix it. Read the responses.

Q&A: THE THREE TRILLION DOLLAR WAR

For two weeks, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz and Harvard professor Linda Bilmes, authors of "The Three Trillion Dollar War," fielded questions about the cost of the Iraq war and its impact on the U.S. economy. They're not taking new questions, but they're still posting answers to ones they've already received. Read their responses.

_